Brooklyn Nets vs Utah Jazz

League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-04 07:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-04 07:43 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Brooklyn Nets +4.5 at -110 / 58% / Nets show improved home defense lately, covering in 4 of last 6 as dogs; Jazz poor road ATS (3-7)
💰 Best Bet #2 Under 227.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams bottom-10 pace and ORtg, recent games avg 215 total; injuries limit scoring
💰 Best Bet #3 Utah Jazz Moneyline -190 / 62% / Better record (7-13 vs 5-16), superior net rating edges out Nets despite road

Brooklyn Nets vs Utah Jazz on 2025-12-04

Game Times
ET: 7:30 PM
CT: 6:30 PM
MT: 5:30 PM
PT: 4:30 PM
AKT: 3:30 PM
HST: 1:30 PM

💸 Public Bets
Brooklyn Nets 38% / Utah Jazz 62%

💰 Money Distribution
Brooklyn Nets 45% / Utah Jazz 55%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Jazz opened -3.5, moved to -4.5 on sharp road favorite action despite public lean.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Nets +4.5; reverse line movement against public supports home dog value.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Brooklyn Nets | 42.3% |
| Win % for Utah Jazz | 57.7% |
| Spread Cover % for Brooklyn Nets (+4.5) | 61.8% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over 227.5: 48.2% / Under: 51.8% |
| Average Total Points | 224.7 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.4, 8.2] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Cam Thomas Over 21.5 Points at -115 / 68% / Leads Nets scoring at 24.2 PPG usage up sans injuries, Jazz weak perimeter D allows 25+
Player Prop #2: Nic Claxton Over 9.5 Rebounds at -110 / 65% / Nets boards 2nd vs Jazz weak frontcourt (Kessler out), Claxton 11.2 RPG home
Player Prop #3: Keyonte George Over 4.5 Assists at +105 / 62% / Jazz primary ball-handler 6.1 APG recently, Nets turnover-prone backcourt

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public and money percentages align on Jazz, but reverse line movement from -3.5 to -4.5 signals sharp resistance, creating value on Nets cover with home edge and Jazz road woes (3-7 ATS away). Both offenses struggle (Nets 107 ORtg, Jazz 109), projecting low-scoring affair under total amid key absences like Kessler and potential Nurkic limitation. Fade public slightly on spread for mathematical edge.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Nets +4.5 — highest EV from RLM and sim convergence.

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