New Orleans Pelicans vs Minnesota Timberwolves

League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-04 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-04 09:57 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Minnesota Timberwolves / -12.5 / -110 / 68% / Pelicans decimated by injuries (Zion, Murray, Poole, Jones out), Wolves on 3-game win streak with 13-8 record vs. NOP’s 3-19 slump; sim shows 68% cover rate
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 230.5 at -110 / 62% / Both teams play at high pace, Pelicans allow 122+ PPG with poor defense, Wolves efficient offense pushes avg total to 230.2 in sims
💰 Best Bet #3 Minnesota Timberwolves / Moneyline / -800 / 84% / Dominant 84.1% win probability from Monte Carlo, backed by healthy roster and sharp line movement

New Orleans Pelicans vs Minnesota Timberwolves on 2025-12-04

Game Times
ET: 08:00 PM
CT: 07:00 PM
MT: 06:00 PM
PT: 05:00 PM
AKT: 04:00 PM
HST: 02:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Pelicans 25% / Timberwolves 75%

💰 Money Distribution
Pelicans 35% / Timberwolves 65%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened Wolves -11, moved to -12.5 on sharp Wolves money despite heavy public action

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
Wolves spread +4.5%; sim cover rate and RLM confirm value against injured Pelicans

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New Orleans Pelicans | 15.2% |
| Win % for Minnesota Timberwolves | 84.1% |
| Spread Cover % for New Orleans Pelicans | 32.2% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 61.5% / Under: 38.5% |
| Average Total Points | 230.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [5.1, 25.4] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Anthony Edwards / Over 28.5 Points / -110 / 72% / Edwards averages 28+ PPG vs weak defenses like NOP (122+ allowed), high usage with Wolves healthy, 7/10 overs recently
Player Prop #2: Trey Murphy III / Over 5.5 Rebounds / -137 / 70% / Elevated role sans Jones/Zion, 6.6 RPG avg, overs in 50% but matchup boosts vs MIN rebounding
Player Prop #3: CJ McCollum / Over 21.5 Points / -110 / 68% / Lead scorer for depleted Pels (Ingram questionable), 24+ PPG last 5, favorable vs Wolves PnR weak spots

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public and money percentages align heavily on the Timberwolves, matching sharp action via reverse line movement to -12.5 despite 75% public bets. Follow the public here as metrics, injuries, and simulation converge on Wolves dominance rather than a fade opportunity. Game projects high-scoring with Pelicans’ porous defense (122.1 PPG allowed) overwhelmed by Minnesota’s efficiency.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Timberwolves — sim-backed 84% win probability and +EV on spread outweighs any contrarian lean.

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