NBA
New Orleans Pelicans vs 
Minnesota Timberwolves
League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-04 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-04 07:45 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Minnesota Timberwolves / Spread / -12.5 at -110 / 62% / Timberwolves on 3-game win streak vs 3-19 Pelicans ravaged by injuries (Zion, Murray, Jones, Poole out); sim cover rate 62%, recent H2H win by 7 in OT.
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 230.5 at -110 / 58% / Pelicans allow 122.1 PPG (worst in NBA), recent matchup 149-142 OT (291 pts); offensive ratings favor high-scoring affair at fast pace.
💰 Best Bet #3 Minnesota Timberwolves / Moneyline / -750 / 85% / Dominant form (13-8), full health vs depleted Pelicans; 85% sim win probability.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New Orleans Pelicans | 15.0% |
| Win % for Minnesota Timberwolves | 85.0% |
| Spread Cover % for New Orleans Pelicans +12.5 | 38.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Minnesota Timberwolves -12.5 | 62.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over 230.5: 55.0% / Under: 45.0% |
| Average Total Points | 238.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (Timberwolves – Pelicans) | [5.2, 25.8] |
🏀 Matchup: New Orleans Pelicans vs Minnesota Timberwolves on 2025-12-04
Game Times
ET: 08:00 PM
CT: 07:00 PM
MT: 06:00 PM
PT: 05:00 PM
AKT: 04:00 PM
HST: 02:00 PM
💸 Public Bets
Pelicans 22% / Timberwolves 78%
💰 Money Distribution
Pelicans 35% / Timberwolves 65%
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Opened Timberwolves -11.5, moved to -12.5 despite heavy public action on favorite; slight RLM signals sharp support for Timberwolves.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Timberwolves -12.5 (implied prob 52% vs true 62% per sim/metrics/injuries).
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Anthony Edwards / Over 28.5 Points / -110 / 72% / Edwards averages 28.2 PPG (high usage 32%), feasts vs weak Pelicans D (30+ in recent H2H); ORtg spikes in matchups like this.
Player Prop #2: Rudy Gobert / Over 12.5 Rebounds / -110 / 69% / Gobert 13.1 RPG, Pelicans bottom-5 opp reb rate, missing frontcourt depth (Zion/Missi out); 70% hit rate last 10 road games.
Player Prop #3: CJ McCollum / Over 22.5 Points / -105 / 66% / Lead Pelicans scorer (24.1 PPG w/ injuries), high volume (20+ FGA) vs Twolves avg DRtg; over in 8/10 recent starts.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Timberwolves, aligning with money distribution and line movement toward heavier favorite, supported by math (high EV on spread) and Pelicans’ injury crisis enabling blowout potential. Sharp action inferred from RLM despite public pile-on. Game projects high-scoring with Pelicans’ porous defense (122.1 allowed) vs Timberwolves efficiency, though sim tempers Over slightly due to pace variance.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public on Timberwolves — superior metrics, form, and matchup confirm highest win probability.
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