Calgary Flames vs Minnesota Wild

League: NHL | Date: 2025-12-04 09:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-04 10:13 AM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 Calgary Flames +1.5 at -165 / 64% / Flames cover in close simulation with high probability due to Wild injuries and even matchup.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under 5.5 at -110 / 55% / Flipped from slight over lean in sim; elite Wild goaltending and Flames struggles suppress goals.

💰 Best Bet #3 Minnesota Wild Moneyline at -120 / 52% / Wild edge in win probability from record, road favorite status.

Calgary Flames vs Minnesota Wild on 2025-12-04

Game Times
ET: 9:00 PM
CT: 8:00 PM
MT: 7:00 PM
PT: 6:00 PM
AKT: 5:00 PM
HST: 3:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Wild 62% / Flames 38%

💰 Money Distribution
Wild 68% / Flames 32%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Wild ML opened -110, moved to -120 despite public fade; puck line steady at Flames +1.5 -165, total 5.5 firm.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Flames +1.5; RLM against public supports cover value with Wild key injuries.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Calgary Flames | 49% |
| Win % for Minnesota Wild | 51% |
| Spread Cover % for Calgary Flames +1.5 | 64% |
| Spread Cover % for Minnesota Wild -1.5 | 36% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 51% / Under: 49% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.6 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.8, +2.1] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Nazem Kadri Over 0.5 Points / 1.5 at -120 / 72% / Kadri hot streak vs Wild defense, high usage on top line.

Player Prop #2: Kirill Kaprizov Over 3.5 Shots on Goal / 3.5 at -115 / 68% / Leads Wild in shots, Flames weak high-danger defense.

Player Prop #3: Matt Boldy Under 0.5 Goals / 0.5 at -130 / 70% / Flames goaltending strong vs right wings, regression on Boldy scoring.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public leans Wild but money split shows sharp divergence on Flames cover amid Wild injuries like Brodin and Eriksson Ek out. Math favors fading public on spread with sim backing. Game projects low-scoring with Wild elite netminding vs Flames poor offense.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Flames +1.5 — highest EV from RLM, injuries, and simulation convergence.

Highlights unavailable.