South Florida vs Utah State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-04 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-04 10:41 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 South Florida / +1.5 / -105 / 57% / Simulation cover rate at 57%, USF tougher schedule (55th hardest), Utah State first true road game
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / 155.5 / -110 / 55% / Average simulated total 155.2 supports slight over edge, both teams strong at free throws and quick scoring
💰 Best Bet #3 Utah State / Moneyline / -120 / 52% / Narrow win probability edge in sims despite road test

South Florida vs Utah State on 2025-12-04

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for South Florida | 48% |
| Win % for Utah State | 52% |
| Spread Cover % for South Florida (+1.5) | 57% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 55% / Under: 45% |
| Average Total Points | 155.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8.2, 6.4] |

💸 Public Bets
Limited data available; posts on X show split interest with some backing South Florida +1.5

💰 Money Distribution
No specific percentages reported; sim suggests balanced action

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent (limited public data, line steady at Utah State -1.5)

📉 Line Movement
Stable at Utah State -1.5 per latest FanDuel odds; no major shifts noted

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on South Florida spread (sim cover exceeds implied odds probability)

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment appears split with limited volume, aligning loosely with sharp interest in home underdog value; simulation favors South Florida covering amid Utah State’s road inexperience. Fade heavy public if it emerges on favorite, but follow sim edge here. Game projects moderately high-scoring based on pace and FT rates.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Utah State — South Florida +1.5 holds strongest mathematical probability.

Highlights unavailable.