UC Irvine vs UC Riverside

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-04 10:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-04 10:43 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 UC Irvine / Spread / -9.5 at -110 / 58% / UC Irvine’s elite defense (8th in adj def rating, allowing 58.8 PPG) and home dominance give strong cover probability, aligned with 58.4% sim rate exceeding implied odds.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 141.5 at -112 / 59% / Both teams feature top-tier defenses with UC Irvine at 80.4% def reb% (4th nationally); sim avg total of 135 points supports under at 58.8% probability.

💰 Best Bet #3 UC Irvine / Moneyline / -450 / 78% / Overwhelming 78.2% win probability from roster continuity and current 8-0 form crushes Riverside’s poor recent showings.

NCAAB Matchup: UC Irvine vs UC Riverside on 2025-12-04

Game Times
ET: 10:00 PM
CT: 9:00 PM
MT: 8:00 PM
PT: 7:00 PM
AKT: 6:00 PM
HST: 4:00 PM

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for UC Irvine | 78.2% |
| Win % for UC Riverside | 20.5% |
| Spread Cover % for UC Irvine (-9.5) | 58.4% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 41.2% / Under: 58.8% |
| Average Total Points | 135.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [ -2.1, 25.3 ] |

💸 Public Bets
UC Irvine 72% / UC Riverside 28%

💰 Money Distribution
UC Irvine 68% / UC Riverside 32%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened at UC Irvine -8.5; moved to -9.5 amid moderate volume, indicating some sharp action on home team despite public support (per SportsGambler and early X chatter).

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.5% on UC Irvine spread; simulation cover rate exceeds implied odds probability, bolstered by KenPom rankings and defensive metrics from Odds Shark current 2025 season data.

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors UC Irvine at 72%, aligning closely with money distribution at 68%, suggesting market consensus without significant sharp divergence. The line movement to -9.5 reinforces value on the favorite, supported by UC Irvine’s undefeated start and top-ranked defensive metrics. Overall game outlook points to a low-scoring affair, with both defenses limiting possessions effectively.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with UC Irvine — mathematical probability and sim results confirm the home team’s edge as the optimal side.

Highlights unavailable.