Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks

League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-05 09:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-05 06:22 PM EST

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks on 2025-12-05

💰 Best Bet #1 Oklahoma City Thunder / Spread / -15.5 at -110 / 56% / Thunder’s elite defense and Mavericks’ key injuries create a large talent gap, with recent form showing OKC covering in similar blowouts.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 227.5 at -110 / 57% / Both teams rank top-5 in defensive rating this season, with OKC slowing pace against depleted Dallas offense leading to sub-line totals in 70% of simulations.

💰 Best Bet #3 Oklahoma City Thunder / Moneyline / -1400 / 84% / Overwhelming win probability driven by home dominance and Mavericks’ injury-riddled lineup, offering value despite heavy favoritism.

Game Times

ET: 9:30 PM
CT: 8:30 PM
MT: 7:30 PM
PT: 6:30 PM
AKT: 5:30 PM
HST: 3:30 PM

💸 Public Bets
Thunder 72% / Mavericks 28%

💰 Money Distribution
Thunder 58% / Mavericks 42%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Spread opened at -14.5 and ticked to -15.5 with sharp money on OKC despite public lean; total steady at 227.5 as defensive trends hold.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Oklahoma City Thunder | 84.2% |
| Win % for Dallas Mavericks | 15.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Oklahoma City Thunder | 56.3% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 43.1% / Under: 56.9% |
| Average Total Points | 224.7 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-22.1, -8.4] |

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.8% on Thunder spread (model 56% cover vs -110 implied 52.4%); under total offers +2.1% EV based on defensive metrics and pace slowdown.

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: **Shai Gilgeous-Alexander / Over Points / 31.5 at -115 / 68% / Leads NBA in scoring efficiency at 32.1 PPG this season; Mavericks rank last in perimeter defense, allowing 28+ to elite guards in 8 of last 10.

Player Prop #2: **Luka Doncic / Over Assists / 8.5 at -110 / 62% / Averages 9.2 APG with high usage (35%); Thunder’s interior focus leaves Dallas reliant on his playmaking, hitting over in 7 straight road games.

Player Prop #3: **Jalen Williams / Over Rebounds + Assists / 10.5 at -112 / 65% / Contributes 7.8 RPG + 4.5 APG vs. injured frontcourts; Mavericks weak on boards, allowing 12+ combined to wings in recent matchups.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Thunder, aligning with sharp money and model projections due to Dallas’ multiple absences weakening their depth. Following the public proves optimal here, as reverse line movement supports OKC without contrarian edges. Game outlook points to a controlled, lower-scoring affair with OKC’s top-ranked defense limiting Dallas to under 100 points in projections.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Thunder — data convergence shows highest win probability on the favorite in this mismatch.

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