Brooklyn Nets vs New Orleans Pelicans

League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-06 05:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-06 09:49 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Brooklyn Nets / Spread / -3 at -110 / 60% / Nets hold home-court edge with a 5-17 record against Pelicans’ 3-20 slump; heavy injuries to New Orleans’ stars like Zion and Murray tilt coverage probability, aligning with sharp money movement.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 220.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams rank low in offensive efficiency this season (Nets 22nd, Pelicans 25th in points per game), with key absences reducing pace and scoring; recent trends show unders in 6 of Nets’ last 8 home games.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Brooklyn Nets / Moneyline / -150 / 58% / Simulation projects 58% win probability for Nets, supported by Pelicans’ road woes (1-10 away) and defensive metrics favoring Brooklyn’s containment.]

Brooklyn Nets vs New Orleans Pelicans on 2025-12-06

Game Times

ET: 5:00 PM
CT: 4:00 PM
MT: 3:00 PM
PT: 2:00 PM
AKT: 1:00 PM
HST: 11:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
Brooklyn Nets 61% / New Orleans Pelicans 39%

💰 Money Distribution
Brooklyn Nets 73% / New Orleans Pelicans 27%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened at Nets -3, moved to -3.5 with heavy money on Brooklyn despite public support, indicating sharp confirmation on the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.5% EV on Nets spread; simulation and injury impacts create value against implied odds, with under total showing +1.8% edge based on defensive metrics and low pace.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Brooklyn Nets | 58% |
| Win % for New Orleans Pelicans | 42% |
| Spread Cover % for Brooklyn Nets | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 215 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-20, 24] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Nets at 61%, aligning with money distribution at 73%, which confirms market consensus without significant sharp divergence or reverse line movement to fade. Both teams exhibit low offensive ratings (Nets allowing 112 points per game, Pelicans scoring just 105), pointing to a low-scoring affair under the total. Injuries decimate the Pelicans’ lineup, enhancing value on Brooklyn without overreacting to hype.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Brooklyn Nets — mathematical probability and simulation edges support the favorite in this mismatch.

Highlights unavailable.