Cleveland Cavaliers vs Golden State Warriors

League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-06 07:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-06 05:59 PM EST

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Golden State Warriors on 2025-12-06

Game Times

ET: 07:30 PM
CT: 06:30 PM
MT: 05:30 PM
PT: 04:30 PM
AKT: 03:30 PM
HST: 01:30 PM

💰 Best Bet #1 [Cleveland Cavaliers / Spread / -5.5 at -110 / 65% / Cavaliers hold strong home advantage with Warriors hampered by key injuries like Curry’s questionable status and Green’s midfoot issue, supporting a cover in simulations]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 223.5 at -110 / 60% / Both teams face significant absences affecting scoring pace, with Cavs’ defensive rating strong against depleted lineups and recent trends favoring lower totals]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Cleveland Cavaliers / Moneyline / -220 / 70% / Dominant win probability driven by home form and Warriors’ injury woes, aligning with sharp money indicators]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Cleveland Cavaliers | 69% |
| Win % for Golden State Warriors | 31% |
| Spread Cover % for Cleveland Cavaliers (-5.5) | 61% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 42% / Under: 58% |
| Average Total Points | 223.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [+2.1, +9.8] |

💸 Public Bets
[Cleveland Cavaliers 68% / Golden State Warriors 32%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Cleveland Cavaliers 72% / Golden State Warriors 28%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -6 and steadied at -5.5 with balanced action, no significant reverse movement despite public lean on home team.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Cavaliers spread / Public and money consensus supports home side, with EV boosted by injury impacts reducing Warriors’ efficiency; totals show value under due to pace slowdown from absences.]

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Evan Mobley / Over 10.5 Rebounds / 10.5 at -110 / 75% / Mobley’s 12.8 rebound average this season surges against Warriors’ thin frontcourt, with defensive rebounding rate at 28% and Allen’s absence increasing his minutes.
Player Prop #2: Stephen Curry / Under 25.5 Points / 25.5 at -110 / 70% / Curry’s questionable toe limits usage to 22.1 PPG recently, facing Cavs’ top-5 perimeter defense that holds opponents to 34% from three.
Player Prop #3: Draymond Green / Over 6.5 Assists / 6.5 at +100 / 65% / Green’s playmaking rises to 7.2 APG without full lineup, exploiting Cavs’ backcourt injuries like Garland’s absence for more facilitation opportunities.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment aligns with sharp money on the Cavaliers, as both favor the home team amid Warriors’ injury-riddled roster, making a follow strategy optimal with positive EV on the spread. The game outlook points to a controlled pace and lower scoring, with combined offensive ratings dipping below league average due to key absences on both sides. No contrarian fade is justified, as metrics confirm the home edge without overvaluation.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Cleveland Cavaliers] — Highest probability stems from home dominance and matchup injuries tilting simulations heavily in their favor.

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