Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets

League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-06 08:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-06 06:02 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Houston Rockets / Spread / -8.5 at -110 / 62% / Houston’s dominant road form (11-2 ATS) and Dallas’ key injuries like Irving out and Lively sidelined create a clear edge, with line movement supporting the favorite despite public lean.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 223.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams’ defensive ratings in the top half of the league, combined with Mavs’ depleted frontcourt and Rockets’ controlled pace, point to a lower-scoring affair below the total.

💰 Best Bet #3 Houston Rockets / Moneyline / -320 / 70% / Simulation projects 72% win probability for Houston, backed by superior recent form and matchup advantages over a hobbled Dallas squad.

Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets on 2025-12-06

Game Times
ET: 8:30 PM
CT: 7:30 PM
MT: 6:30 PM
PT: 5:30 PM
AKT: 4:30 PM
HST: 2:30 PM

💸 Public Bets
Dallas 55% / Houston 45%

💰 Money Distribution
Dallas 40% / Houston 60%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -7.5 for Houston but moved to -8.5 amid sharp money on the Rockets, despite 55% public tickets on Dallas, indicating professional action against the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Houston -8.5, driven by reverse line movement and injury impacts favoring the Rockets’ true probability over implied odds.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Dallas Mavericks | 28% |
| Win % for Houston Rockets | 72% |
| Spread Cover % for Dallas Mavericks (+8.5) | 42% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 223.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12, -4] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Amen Thompson / Over Points / 19.5 at +100 / 72% / With Sengun doubtful, Thompson’s usage spikes (+7.34%) and scoring jumps (+11.07 points/100 possessions off the bench), exploiting Dallas’ thin frontcourt defense.

Player Prop #2: Luka Doncic / Over Assists / 8.5 at -115 / 68% / Doncic’s playmaking remains elite (assist rate 42% in recent games), and Houston’s perimeter defense allows 26.3 opponent assists per game, boosted by Mavs’ injury-forced reliance on his distribution.

Player Prop #3: Jalen Green / Under Points / 24.5 at -110 / 65% / Green’s shot volume dips against Dallas’ top-10 perimeter D (opponents 34.2% from three), with recent form showing under hits in 4 of last 5, especially in controlled-pace road games.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans toward Dallas due to home-court hype, but sharp money and reverse line movement diverge toward Houston, aligning with mathematical edges from injuries and form—fading the public proves optimal here. Overall game scoring tilts under, as both offenses face disruptions (Mavs missing interior scoring, Rockets methodical without Sengun) against solid defenses averaging under 220 combined points in similar matchups. Contextual factors like Dallas’ rest disadvantage further solidify the value on the favorite.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Dallas — Houston holds the best mathematical probability with positive EV across spread and moneyline.

Highlights unavailable.