Buffalo vs St. Bonaventure

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-06 02:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-06 10:40 AM EST

Buffalo vs St. Bonaventure on 2025-12-06

💰 Best Bet #1 [Buffalo / Spread / +2.5 at -110 / 55% / Simulation shows 52% cover rate with home defensive rebounding edge offsetting St. Bonaventure’s form, supported by stable line despite public lean]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 147.5 at -110 / 52% / Recent trends and matchup efficiencies suggest controlled pace, with average simulated total at 147.2 and slight under probability from defensive metrics]

💰 Best Bet #3 [St. Bonaventure / Moneyline / -130 / 54% / Higher win probability in sim aligns with moderate favorite status, bolstered by recent form and venue advantage]

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[40% / 60%]

💰 Money Distribution
[45% / 55%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line stable at St. Bonaventure -2.5, with minimal shift despite moderate public action on the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Buffalo spread / Reverse line stability and simulation convergence indicate value against public sentiment, supported by home defensive rebounding advantages]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Buffalo | 45.23% |
| Win % for St. Bonaventure | 52.34% |
| Spread Cover % for Buffalo (+2.5) | 52.10% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.50% / Under: 51.50% |
| Average Total Points | 147.20 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (Buffalo perspective) | [-20.5, 18.2] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans toward St. Bonaventure with aligned money distribution, but mathematical edges favor fading on the spread due to simulation probabilities and stable lines indicating overvaluation of the favorite. Overall game scoring outlook points to a moderate contest, with defensive efficiencies likely keeping the total under amid controlled possessions and rebounding battles. No major injuries reported, allowing full rosters to influence a close matchup.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Fade the public on Buffalo] — simulation and EV metrics highlight value in the underdog against public favoritism.

Highlights unavailable.