Kennesaw State vs Georgia State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-06 03:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-06 10:43 AM EST

Kennesaw State vs Georgia State on 2025-12-06

💰 Best Bet #1 Georgia State / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 59% / Georgia State shows strong home advantage with superior recent form and efficiency metrics, covering in 6 of last 8 home games against similar opponents.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 147.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams play at a high tempo with average combined points exceeding 150 in recent matchups, supported by weak defensive rebounding allowing second-chance opportunities.

💰 Best Bet #3 Georgia State / Moneyline / -190 / 66% / Georgia State’s depth and home-court edge provide clear value over Kennesaw State’s inconsistent road performance this season.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Kennesaw State | 34% |
| Win % for Georgia State | 66% |
| Spread Cover % for Georgia State -4.5 | 59% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 54% / Under: 46% |
| Average Total Points | 147.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12, +1] |

Game Times
ET: 3:00 PM
CT: 2:00 PM
MT: 1:00 PM
PT: 12:00 PM
AKT: 11:00 AM
HST: 9:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
Georgia State 70% / Kennesaw State 30%

💰 Money Distribution
Georgia State 60% / Kennesaw State 40%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -4 for Georgia State and moved to -4.5 amid steady public action, indicating no significant sharp resistance.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on Georgia State spread, driven by alignment of public and money percentages with simulation probabilities and Georgia State’s home efficiency rating outperforming Kennesaw State’s road defense.

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment aligns with sharp money on Georgia State, making following the favorite the optimal approach given the lack of reverse line movement and supportive metrics like turnover differential. The game projects as moderately high-scoring, with both offenses capable of exploiting defensive weaknesses in transition play. Overall, the matchup favors the home team without strong contrarian value.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Georgia State — strong probability backed by home advantage and simulation edges.

Highlights unavailable.