Tulane vs Akron

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-06 04:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-06 10:50 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Tulane / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 58% / Tulane’s superior adjusted offensive efficiency (108.5) against Akron’s average defense, combined with home-court advantage, projects a comfortable cover in simulations.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 140.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams play at moderate tempos (71.2 and 69.8), with Akron’s solid defensive rating (105.1) likely capping scoring below the line.

💰 Best Bet #3 Tulane / Moneyline / -190 / 62% / Tulane’s overall efficiency edge and recent home form (3-1 in last 4) make them the clear favorite against Akron’s road struggles.

🏀 Matchup: Tulane vs Akron on 2025-12-06

Game Times

ET: 4:00 PM
CT: 3:00 PM
MT: 2:00 PM
PT: 1:00 PM
AKT: 12:00 PM
HST: 10:00 AM

💸 Public Bets

Tulane 68% / Akron 32%

💰 Money Distribution

Tulane 72% / Akron 28%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Tulane -3.5 but moved to -4.5 early, indicating sharp action on the favorite despite public support.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+4% on Tulane spread; simulations show 55% cover rate versus implied 52.4% odds probability, supported by efficiency metrics and home advantage.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Tulane | 62.3% |
| Win % for Akron | 37.7% |
| Spread Cover % for Tulane | 55.2% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.1% / Under: 51.9% |
| Average Total Points | 139.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.5, 21.3] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Tulane’s Asher Woods / Over 14.5 Points / -110 / 68% / Woods averages 16.2 PPG in home games this season, exploiting Akron’s perimeter defense that allows 25% from three; matchup favors high-volume scoring.

Player Prop #2: Akron’s Ali Ali / Under 5.5 Assists / -115 / 62% / Ali’s assist rate drops to 18% on the road against Tulane’s active guards, with recent games showing under in 4 of 5 away contests.

Player Prop #3: Tulane’s Kolby King / Over 8.5 Rebounds / -105 / 65% / King’s 9.8 RPG at home aligns with Akron’s poor offensive rebounding (28%), projecting strong board work in a controlled pace game.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Tulane, aligning with money distribution and sharp line movement, creating no clear fade opportunity—following the favorite is optimal based on converging metrics. Akron’s road inefficiencies (1-3 away) and Tulane’s defensive rebounding edge suggest a controlled, lower-scoring affair under the total. Overall, the game projects as a moderate-output contest with Tulane pulling away late.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Tulane — efficiency ratings and simulation outcomes confirm the favorite’s edge in this matchup.

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