Charlotte Hornets vs Denver Nuggets

League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-07 06:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-07 05:47 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Denver Nuggets / Spread / -10.5 at -110 / 65% / Nuggets dominate with Jokic leading, Hornets weakened by key injuries like Ball out; simulation shows 55% cover rate for underdog but favors Denver’s road streak.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 233.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams show defensive trends in recent games, Nuggets control pace; average sim total at 220 points with 52% under probability.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Denver Nuggets / Moneyline / -650 / 80% / Strong win probability from simulation (80%), superior record (16-6) and matchup edge over struggling Hornets (7-16).]

Charlotte Hornets vs Denver Nuggets on 2025-12-07

Game Times

ET: 06:00 PM
CT: 05:00 PM
MT: 04:00 PM
PT: 03:00 PM
AKT: 02:00 PM
HST: 12:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[25% Hornets / 75% Nuggets]

💰 Money Distribution

[40% Hornets / 60% Nuggets]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at -9.5 for Nuggets, moved to -10.5 with steady action on Denver despite public heavy on favorite; total steady at 233.5.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Nuggets spread / Consensus from sim win prob (80%) exceeds implied odds (68%), supported by injury impacts and recent Nuggets form.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Charlotte Hornets | 20% |
| Win % for Denver Nuggets | 80% |
| Spread Cover % for Charlotte Hornets | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 220 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [5, 25] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Nikola Jokic / Over Points / 28.5 at -115 / 75% / Jokic averages 29.5 PPG this season, exploits Hornets’ weak interior defense without Ball; usage up 5% in recent wins.
Player Prop #2: Jamal Murray / Over Assists / 6.5 at -110 / 70% / Murray dishes 7.2 APG, Hornets allow 25+ assists per game; on/off metrics show +8 assist boost vs similar foes.
Player Prop #3: Brandon Miller / Under Points / 18.5 at -105 / 68% / Miller at 17.8 PPG without Ball, Nuggets rank top-5 in perimeter D; recent form under in 4/5 games.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Nuggets, aligning with sharp money and simulation metrics, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading. Injuries like LaMelo Ball out for Hornets tilt the edge further to Denver’s superior offense. Overall game outlook points to a controlled, lower-scoring affair with Nuggets pulling away late, driven by defensive efficiencies (Nuggets allow 108 PPG, Hornets 115).

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Denver Nuggets / Highest probability from aligned market, sim (80% win), and contextual factors like injuries.]

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