Philadelphia Eagles vs Las Vegas Raiders

League: NFL | Date: 2025-12-14 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-14 09:09 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Eagles / Spread / -12.5 at -110 / 56% / Eagles show strong home advantage against a Raiders team hampered by QB instability and key absences, with recent form and defensive metrics supporting a comfortable cover.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 44.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ offenses face disruptions from injuries, leading to lower efficiency; defensive strengths and slower pace project below the line based on current season averages.

💰 Best Bet #3 Eagles / Moneyline / -650 / 68% / Philadelphia’s superior talent and home-field edge overpower Las Vegas’s struggles, including a backup QB and poor road performance this season.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Las Vegas Raiders on 2025-12-14

Game Times

ET: 1:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 9:00 AM
HST: 7:00 AM

💸 Public Bets

Eagles 90% / Raiders 10%

💰 Money Distribution

Eagles 85% / Raiders 15%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at -11 for Eagles and moved to -12.5, reflecting sharp support for Philadelphia despite heavy public action on the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+4% on Eagles spread; reverse line movement against public percentage indicates professional backing, combined with injury impacts creating value.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Philadelphia Eagles | 68% |
| Win % for Las Vegas Raiders | 32% |
| Spread Cover % for Philadelphia Eagles (-12.5) | 56% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 44.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [+8, +18] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Saquon Barkley / Over Rushing Yards / 105.5 at -115 / 72% / Barkley’s 5.2 yards per carry average this season exploits Raiders’ 25th-ranked run defense, with increased usage expected sans Johnson.

Player Prop #2: Jalen Hurts / Over Passing Yards / 245.5 at -110 / 65% / Hurts faces a Raiders secondary allowing 7.2 yards per attempt; his 68% completion rate and home splits support exceeding the line against weakened coverage.

Player Prop #3: Brock Bowers / Over Receptions / 5.5 at -120 / 58% / Bowers leads Raiders with 6.8 targets per game; Eagles’ linebacker injuries boost his slot opportunities in a pass-heavy scheme with Pickett at QB.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Eagles, aligning with money distribution and line movement, making a follow strategy optimal as metrics confirm Philadelphia’s edge without contrarian value. Sharp action reinforces the favorite amid Raiders’ QB and line woes. Overall scoring outlook leans low, with defenses dominating due to offensive line injuries and conservative play-calling projecting under the total.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Eagles — superior metrics and matchup advantages provide the highest probability of success.

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