Denver Broncos vs Green Bay Packers

League: NFL | Date: 2025-12-14 04:25 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-14 09:11 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Denver Broncos / Spread / +2.5 at -110 / 55% / Broncos show strong home form with recent wins over quality opponents, and simulation indicates 52% cover rate against a Packers team facing altitude challenges and potential Jacobs injury impact.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 41.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams’ defenses rank top-10 in EPA allowed per play this season, with recent games trending low-scoring; Packers’ last three averaged 16.7 points, Broncos allowing 17.3 at home.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Denver Broncos / Moneyline / +114 / 52% / Close simulation win probability (48%) undervalues Broncos’ 11-2 record and home advantage, creating value as underdogs against a road-weary Packers squad.]

Denver Broncos vs Green Bay Packers on 2025-12-14

Game Times

ET: 4:25 PM
CT: 3:25 PM
MT: 2:25 PM
PT: 1:25 PM
AKT: 12:25 PM
HST: 10:25 AM

Public Bets

[42% / 58%]

💸 Public Bets

[Denver Broncos 42% / Green Bay Packers 58%]

💰 Money Distribution

[48% / 52%]

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Packers -2.0 with total at 41.5, moving to Packers -2.5 despite 58% public on Green Bay, indicating sharp money on Broncos side amid altitude and injury concerns.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+4% on Broncos +2.5, driven by reverse line movement against public favoritism and Broncos’ superior recent defensive metrics (top-5 in success rate allowed), outweighing Packers’ slight offensive edge.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Denver Broncos | 48% |
| Win % for Green Bay Packers | 50% |
| Spread Cover % for Denver Broncos (+2.5) | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 41.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-14, 12] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Bo Nix / Over 225.5 Passing Yards / -110 / 62% / Nix averages 248 yards per game at home this season with high efficiency (CPOE +4.2), facing a Packers secondary vulnerable to mobile QBs (allowing 1.8 EPA/play); recent form shows 250+ in three of last four.
Player Prop #2: Josh Jacobs / Under 65.5 Rushing Yards / -112 / 58% / Jacobs questionable with hip issue and limited practice; Packers’ backfield shares carries (averaging 58 yards in questionable games), against Broncos’ No. 4 run defense (3.8 yards per carry allowed).
Player Prop #3: Courtland Sutton / Over 62.5 Receiving Yards / -108 / 60% / Sutton leads Broncos in targets (8.2/game) with 72% catch rate; Packers allow 68 yards to top WRs this season, and Nix-Sutton connection hits over in 70% of home games amid favorable weather.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward the Packers as favorites due to their record and Love’s recent play, but divergent money percentages and reverse line movement suggest sharp action on the Broncos, aligning with mathematical edges from home advantage and defensive strengths. Follow the contrarian side here as EV supports fading the public without overreacting to hype. Overall game scoring projects low, with both offenses facing top defenses and potential weather cooling in Denver, favoring the under.

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on Green Bay Packers — Denver Broncos +2.5 offers the best mathematical probability based on simulation cover rate, RLM, and contextual factors like injuries and altitude.

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