Indiana vs Penn State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-09 08:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-09 09:58 AM EST

Indiana vs Penn State on 2025-12-09

Game Times
ET: 8:30 PM
CT: 7:30 PM
MT: 6:30 PM
PT: 5:30 PM
AKT: 4:30 PM
HST: 2:30 PM

💰 Best Bet #1 [Indiana / Spread / -7.5 at -110 / 58% / Indiana’s strong home efficiency and Penn State’s road struggles create value on the spread, supported by recent form and simulation edges.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 152.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ pace and offensive rebounding suggest a slight lean over, with average totals aligning above the line in simulations.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Indiana / Moneyline / -320 / 73% / Home advantage and superior adjusted efficiency give Indiana a clear edge in win probability against an 8-1 but road-weak Penn State.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Indiana | 72.5% |
| Win % for Penn State | 27.5% |
| Spread Cover % for Indiana | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points | 150.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-5, 18] |

💸 Public Bets
[65% / 35%]

💰 Money Distribution
[70% / 30%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Indiana -6.5 and moved to -7.5 with balanced action, showing stability despite public lean on home team.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Indiana spread; simulation win probabilities exceed implied odds, with home efficiency and recent trends providing positive EV against consensus line.]

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment aligns with sharp money on Indiana, making following the favorite optimal based on efficiency metrics and home splits. Penn State’s 8-1 record masks road vulnerabilities, while Indiana’s defense limits opponents effectively. Overall game scoring outlook points to a moderate total, with offenses capable of pushing over but defenses keeping it competitive.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Indiana / No clear edge] — mathematical probability favors the home win.

Highlights unavailable.