NCAAB

St. Bonaventure vs Colgate

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-10 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-10 10:33 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 St. Bonaventure / Spread / -9.5 at -110 / 58% / St. Bonaventure’s strong home form and defensive efficiency give them a clear edge over Colgate’s slower pace, with recent games showing consistent covers against similar mid-majors.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 145.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams exhibit moderate tempos and allow efficient shooting, leading to totals exceeding this line in 60% of comparable matchups this season, bolstered by St. Bonaventure’s recent scoring trends.

💰 Best Bet #3 St. Bonaventure / Moneyline / -500 / 73% / As the home favorite with superior adjusted efficiency ratings, St. Bonaventure holds a dominant win probability against an underdog Colgate squad struggling on the road.

🏀 Matchup: St. Bonaventure vs Colgate on 2025-12-10

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
75% St. Bonaventure / 25% Colgate

💰 Money Distribution
65% St. Bonaventure / 35% Colgate

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -9 and held steady at -9.5 with balanced action, showing no significant sharp resistance despite public leaning toward the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on St. Bonaventure spread, driven by home-field advantage and Colgate’s poor road cover rate (under 40% this season), creating value against implied probabilities.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for St. Bonaventure | 72.50% |
| Win % for Colgate | 27.50% |
| Spread Cover % for St. Bonaventure | 58.00% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52.00% / Under: 48.00% |
| Average Total Points | 145.20 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-5.12, 18.45] |

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment aligns closely with sharp money on St. Bonaventure, supported by their 9-1 non-conference record and efficient offense, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading. Colgate’s solid but limited scoring (averaging 72 points per game) faces a stout St. Bonaventure defense allowing just 65 at home, suggesting a controlled game with moderate total potential. Overall, the matchup favors the Bonnies without contrarian edges emerging from line stability or metrics.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with St. Bonaventure — their superior form and home dominance provide the strongest mathematical probability of success.

Highlights unavailable.