St. Bonaventure vs Colgate

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-10 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-10 08:03 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 St. Bonaventure / Spread / -5.5 at -110 / 65% / St. Bonaventure’s strong home record (5-0) and superior adjusted efficiency ratings give them a clear edge against a middling Colgate squad, supported by recent form and home-court advantage.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 138.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams play at a deliberate tempo with solid defensive rebounding percentages, leading to lower-scoring outputs in recent matchups, especially with Colgate’s efficient but low-possession style.

💰 Best Bet #3 St. Bonaventure / Moneyline / -220 / 70% / The Bonnies’ 9-1 record and dominance in non-conference play make them a reliable favorite, with simulations showing a high win probability despite the juice.

St. Bonaventure vs Colgate on 2025-12-10

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

St. Bonaventure 65% / Colgate 35%

💰 Money Distribution

St. Bonaventure 55% / Colgate 45%

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at -4.5 for St. Bonaventure and moved to -5.5 despite heavy public action on the favorite, suggesting some sharp money on Colgate.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on St. Bonaventure spread; the divergence in public vs. money percentages, combined with St. Bonaventure’s home efficiency advantage, creates value against the line.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for St. Bonaventure | 72.0% |
| Win % for Colgate | 28.0% |
| Spread Cover % for St. Bonaventure | 58.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 140.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-9.8, 21.4] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Daryl Banks III / Over Points / 18.5 at -115 / 68% / Banks leads St. Bonaventure with 20.1 PPG in the current season, exploiting Colgate’s average perimeter defense (35% opponent 3P allowed), with high usage in home games.

Player Prop #2: Chad Venning / Over Rebounds / 8.5 at -110 / 62% / Venning averages 9.2 rebounds per game, benefiting from Colgate’s weaker offensive rebounding rate (28%), and has cleared this line in 7 of 10 recent outings.

Player Prop #3: Braeden Smith / Under Points / 14.5 at -105 / 60% / Smith’s 13.8 PPG is suppressed against St. Bonaventure’s stout interior defense (Adj D 95), with low efficiency in road games and potential foul trouble limiting minutes.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward St. Bonaventure, but divergent money distribution hints at sharp interest in the underdog, creating a fade opportunity on the spread if RLM holds. Overall, the matchup favors a controlled pace with both teams prioritizing defense, projecting a total under the line based on tempo and rebounding metrics. No major injuries alter the outlook, keeping key contributors active.

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on Colgate — St. Bonaventure’s metrics and simulation edges provide the strongest probability for a home win and cover.

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