Charlotte Hornets vs Chicago Bulls

League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-12 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-12 06:13 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Chicago Bulls / Spread / -2.5 at -110 / 58% / Bulls hold a clear edge with Hornets’ key injuries like LaMelo Ball out, boosting their cover probability in simulations and recent form.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 229.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ defensive metrics and injuries to scorers point to a lower-scoring affair, aligning with average simulated total of 214 points.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Chicago Bulls / Moneyline / -148 / 58% / Bulls’ superior win probability stems from home-like road advantage and Hornets’ depleted roster, offering value against the line.]

Charlotte Hornets vs Chicago Bulls on 2025-12-12

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[42% Hornets / 58% Bulls]

💰 Money Distribution
[38% Hornets / 62% Bulls]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Bulls -1.5 and moved to -2.5 with sharp money on Chicago despite moderate public interest, indicating professional backing for the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Bulls spread] — EV derived from simulation win rates, injury impacts, and line value, where public alignment supports the model’s probability estimates without contrarian signals.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Charlotte Hornets | 42% |
| Win % for Chicago Bulls | 58% |
| Spread Cover % for Charlotte Hornets | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 214 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-15, 12] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Coby White / Over Points / 21.5 at -115 / 65% / White averages 22.4 PPG in recent games without heavy defensive focus, and Hornets’ backcourt injuries increase his usage against a weakened perimeter defense.
Player Prop #2: Josh Giddey / Over Rebounds + Assists / 14.5 at -110 / 62% / Giddey has hit this in 4/5 games, exploiting Hornets’ frontcourt absences for more rebounding opportunities and playmaking.
Player Prop #3: Miles Bridges / Over Points / 18.5 at -105 / 58% / Bridges steps up as primary scorer with Ball out, averaging 20.2 PPG in similar spots, facing a Bulls defense vulnerable to wings.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans toward the Bulls, aligning with sharp money and simulation outcomes, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading. The matchup favors Chicago due to Charlotte’s extensive injuries depleting their offense. Overall scoring outlook suggests a controlled pace with unders performing based on defensive efficiencies and reduced firepower on both sides.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Chicago Bulls] — Mathematical probabilities confirm the highest win chance here, supported by EV and contextual edges.

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