NHL

St. Louis Blues vs Chicago Blackhawks

League: NHL | Date: 2025-12-12 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-12 09:29 AM EST

Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [Chicago Blackhawks / +1.5 / -185 / 68% / Blackhawks cover the puck line in simulations due to Blues’ back-to-back fatigue and strong home defensive metrics, with xGA/60 at 2.9 allowing limited scoring chances.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 6.0 at -110 / 55% / Analysis points to low-scoring affair with both teams’ GA/60 under 3.0, but historical NHL trends flip to Over for value against defensive regression.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [St. Louis Blues / Moneyline / -149 / 58% / Blues hold edge in xGF/60 (3.1) and recent form, justifying favoritism despite road travel.]

St. Louis Blues vs Chicago Blackhawks on 2025-12-12

Game Times

ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

Public Bets

St. Louis Blues 62% / Chicago Blackhawks 38%

Money Distribution

St. Louis Blues 58% / Chicago Blackhawks 42%

Market Alignment

Divergent

Line Movement

Opened at Blues -140 ML, moved to -149 with slight public lean on favorite; total steady at 6.0 despite minor sharp action on Under early.

Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Blackhawks +1.5, driven by RLM against public (line held firm despite 62% tickets on Blues) and Blues’ rest disadvantage; EV positive from sim convergence and current season xG differentials.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for St. Louis Blues | 55% |
| Win % for Chicago Blackhawks | 35% |
| Tie % | 10% |
| Puck Line Cover % for Chicago Blackhawks +1.5 | 72% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2, +3] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Connor Bedard / Over 0.5 Points / 0.5 at -120 / 72% / Bedard leads Hawks with 0.85 points per game in 2025 season, exploiting Blues’ PK at 80% efficiency; high usage (22%) in home matchups boosts likelihood against fatigued defense.

Player Prop #2: Robert Thomas / Over 0.5 Assists / 0.5 at +110 / 65% / Thomas averages 0.6 assists per game, thriving in Blues’ top line with xGA/60 advantage; Blackhawks allow 1.2 assists to centers in recent home games.

Player Prop #3: Jordan Binnington / Under 25.5 Saves / 25.5 at -115 / 70% / Binnington faces low-shot Hawks (28.5 SOG/game), with Blues forcing turnovers leading to under 26 saves in 7 of last 10 road starts; matchup favors controlled pace.

Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Blues ML aligning with money distribution, but divergence emerges on the puck line where sharp action resists the favorite amid Blues’ back-to-back schedule. Following the public on ML holds neutral EV, but fading on spread offers edge due to RLM and Hawks’ home xGA strength. Overall scoring outlook leans low with both teams’ defensive metrics (GA/60

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