New Jersey Devils vs Anaheim Ducks

League: NHL | Date: 2025-12-13 12:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-13 10:18 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Anaheim Ducks / Spread / +1.5 at -130 / 62% / Ducks cover with Devils hampered by key injuries like Jack Hughes and Timo Meier out, limiting offensive depth against a rested Anaheim squad]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 6.0 at -110 / 58% / Flipped recommendation per NHL model; despite average sim total of 5.2, data suggests defensive matchup favors low-scoring affair with Ducks’ strong PK and Devils’ absences]
💰 Best Bet #3 [New Jersey Devils / Moneyline / -200 / 55% / Devils hold edge at home with solid recent form, though injuries temper dominance against improving Ducks]

New Jersey Devils vs Anaheim Ducks on 2025-12-13

Game Times

ET: 12:30 PM
CT: 11:30 AM
MT: 10:30 AM
PT: 9:30 AM
AKT: 8:30 AM
HST: 6:30 AM

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New Jersey Devils | 55% |
| Win % for Anaheim Ducks | 45% |
| Spread Cover % for New Jersey Devils (-1.5) | 40% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-1.5, +1.2] |

💸 Public Bets
[65% Devils / 35% Ducks]

💰 Money Distribution
[55% Devils / 45% Ducks]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
[Stable at Devils -1.5; slight shift toward Ducks +1.5 amid injury news on Devils’ side]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Ducks +1.5; reverse line movement against public favoritism for Devils, supported by injury impacts and sim cover rates]

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Nico Hischier / Over Points / 0.5 at -120 / 68% / Hischier leads Devils’ top line with elevated usage sans Hughes; averages 0.8 points recently against weak Ducks defense allowing 3.2 GA/game
Player Prop #2: Leo Carlsson / Over Shots on Goal / 2.5 at -110 / 65% / Carlsson’s shot volume up to 3.1 SOG/game on Ducks’ second line; faces Devils’ depleted blue line prone to high-danger chances
Player Prop #3: Jacob Markstrom / Under Goals Allowed / 3.5 at -115 / 70% / Markstrom’s .915 SV% shines at home; Ducks offense ranks bottom-5 in xG, sim projects low total with flipped under edge

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans Devils but money distribution shows sharper balance toward Ducks, aligning with RLM and injury context favoring the underdog cover. Fade the public on spread due to Devils’ absences creating value, while following consensus on ML for home edge. Overall scoring outlook points low with both teams’ defensive metrics (Devils 2.8 GA/game allowed, Ducks strong PK at 82%) and sim average under typical total.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Fade the public on Anaheim Ducks] — mathematical probability highest on cover given Devils’ injury toll and sim margins.

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