Philadelphia Flyers vs Carolina Hurricanes

League: NHL | Date: 2025-12-13 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-13 10:23 AM EST

Philadelphia Flyers vs Carolina Hurricanes on 2025-12-13

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💰 Best Bet #1 [Philadelphia Flyers / +1.5 / -180 / 65% / Flyers’ defensive metrics and home-ice advantage limit Hurricanes’ cover potential despite favoritism]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 5.5 at -110 / 55% / Recent trends show both teams’ games averaging below 6 goals, with strong penalty kills reducing high-scoring chances]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Philadelphia Flyers / Moneyline / +120 / 52% / Slight edge in xGF and rest advantage over Hurricanes’ road struggles this season]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Philadelphia Flyers | 48% |
| Win % for Carolina Hurricanes | 45% |
| Spread Cover % for Carolina Hurricanes (-1.5) | 54% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.0, 3.0] |

💸 Public Bets
[45% / 55%]

💰 Money Distribution
[40% / 60%]

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Hurricanes -1.5 (-150) and moved to -140, with slight public lean on Hurricanes but money favoring Flyers side amid injury concerns.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Flyers +1.5, driven by reverse line movement against public action and Flyers’ home xGA under 2.8 per game this season.

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Samuel Ersson / Over 26.5 Saves / -115 / 72% / Ersson faces high-shot volume from Hurricanes’ offense averaging 32 SOG on road, with his save % above .910 in recent starts supporting the over.
Player Prop #2: Sebastian Aho / Under 0.5 Goals / -130 / 68% / Aho’s shooting % regressed to 12% this season against Flyers’ PK at 82%, with defensive matchups limiting high-danger chances.
Player Prop #3: Travis Konecny / Over 2.5 Shots on Goal / -120 / 70% / Konecny averages 3.2 SOG at home, exploiting Hurricanes’ Fenwick vulnerabilities and increased usage without key injuries.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans toward the Hurricanes with 55% of bets, but money distribution favors the Flyers at 60%, indicating sharp action on the home underdog amid divergent alignment. Following the money aligns with mathematical edges from Flyers’ superior Corsi % at home (52.1%) and Hurricanes’ road xGA over 3.0. Overall game scoring outlook points to a controlled, lower-total affair given both teams’ top-10 penalty kills and average pace under 30 shots per period.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Hurricanes — Flyers hold the best mathematical probability with home advantage and metrics supporting a close contest.

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