Illinois State vs Utah State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-13 05:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-13 11:20 AM EST

Illinois State vs Utah State on 2025-12-13

Game Times

ET: 5:00 PM
CT: 4:00 PM
MT: 3:00 PM
PT: 2:00 PM
AKT: 1:00 PM
HST: 11:00 AM

💰 Best Bet #1 [Illinois State / Spread / -2.5 at -110 / 55% / Illinois State shows edge in simulation with 54% cover rate, supported by recent form and home-court advantage in early season matchup]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 142.5 at -110 / 52% / Teams’ offensive efficiencies and pace suggest slight lean over, with average total at 142 and recent games trending higher-scoring]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Illinois State / Moneyline / -130 / 58% / Win probability favors Illinois State at 58%, aligning with adjusted efficiency ratings and historical home performance]

💸 Public Bets
[62% Illinois State / 38% Utah State]

💰 Money Distribution
[58% Illinois State / 42% Utah State]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
[Line opened at -2 and held steady, with minimal movement despite moderate public action on the favorite]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Illinois State spread; simulation probabilities exceed implied odds, with positive EV from home splits and defensive metrics allowing value despite alignment]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Illinois State | 58% |
| Win % for Utah State | 42% |
| Spread Cover % for Illinois State | 54% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 51% / Under: 49% |
| Average Total Points | 142 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-4.2, 7.8] |

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward Illinois State, aligning with money distribution and showing no significant sharp divergence, making a follow strategy optimal based on converging metrics. The matchup projects as moderately paced with balanced offenses, but Illinois State’s home efficiency and Utah State’s road challenges tilt the edge without forcing a fade. Overall scoring outlook favors a slight over, driven by combined points per game averages around 142 and minimal defensive disruptions from available data.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Illinois State] — simulation and market consensus confirm the highest probability on the home side.

Highlights unavailable.