NC State vs Kansas

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-13 05:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-13 11:23 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 NC State / Spread / -3.5 at -110 / 55% / Reverse line movement from -1.5 to -3.5 signals sharp action on home team despite public backing Kansas, bolstered by NC State’s defensive efficiency and Kansas missing key contributor Hunter Peterson.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 150.5 at -110 / 54% / Both squads rank top-50 in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, with recent games averaging 148 combined points; injuries limit scoring potential, aligning with simulation’s slight under lean.
💰 Best Bet #3 NC State / Moneyline / -160 / 55% / Home-court advantage in Raleigh combined with 55% simulated win probability and divergent market signals provide positive EV against an underdog Kansas on the road.

🏀 Matchup: NC State vs Kansas on 2025-12-13

Game Times

ET: 5:30 PM
CT: 4:30 PM
MT: 3:30 PM
PT: 2:30 PM
AKT: 1:30 PM
HST: 11:30 AM

💸 Public Bets

NC State 41% / Kansas 59%

💰 Money Distribution

NC State 3% / Kansas 97%

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Opened at NC State -1.5, shifted to -3.5 despite 59% public bets and 97% money on Kansas, pointing to professional action favoring the Wolfpack.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+4% on NC State side, driven by reverse line movement, home advantage metrics (NC State 7-1 at Lenovo Center), and Kansas’ thin rotation without Peterson; totals show minor edge under due to defensive matchups.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for NC State | 55% |
| Win % for Kansas | 45% |
| Spread Cover % for NC State | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 152 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12, 15] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Kansas, but sharp money and line movement diverge toward NC State, creating value in fading the crowd amid Kansas’ key absences and road challenges. NC State’s balanced offense (top-30 eFG%) faces a Kansas defense vulnerable without Peterson, supporting a follow on the home side. Overall scoring outlook leans moderate, with strong perimeter defenses likely capping the total below the line based on current season averages of 74 PPG combined.

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on Kansas — mathematical probability favors NC State with convergent sharp indicators and simulation support.

Highlights unavailable.