San Jose State vs Stanford

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-13 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-13 11:28 AM EST

San Jose State vs Stanford on 2025-12-13

💰 Best Bet #1 [Stanford / Spread / -7.5 at -110 / 60% / Stanford’s superior adjusted efficiency and home-road splits favor covering, with simulation showing 55.1% cover rate despite SJSU’s recent form.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 148.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams’ defensive rebounding and turnover rates suggest controlled pace, aligning with 51.7% under probability from sim and current season averages under 145 points.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Stanford / Moneyline / -300 / 65% / Stanford’s win probability at 65.2% edges the implied odds, supported by strong offensive rating against SJSU’s havoc defense.]

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[Stanford 72% / San Jose State 28%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Stanford 65% / San Jose State 35%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -7 and held steady at -7.5 despite moderate public action on Stanford, indicating no significant sharp resistance.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Stanford spread; implied probability undervalues their 65% win edge based on current season EPA and efficiency metrics, with no RLM to contradict.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|———————————|————————-|
| Win % for Stanford | 65.2% |
| Win % for San Jose State | 34.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Stanford | 55.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.3% / Under: 51.7% |
| Average Total Points | 148.6 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-4.2, 26.8] |

Player Props Unavailable
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Stanford, aligning with money distribution and mathematical projections from efficiency ratings and recent form, making following the public optimal rather than fading. Stanford’s defensive metrics limit SJSU’s scoring, while both sides’ pace suggests a lower-scoring affair below the total. No contrarian edge emerges, as injuries to key players like Donavin Young (questionable) are factored without shifting value.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Stanford / No clear edge] — Stanford holds the best mathematical probability of winning based on sim and market consensus.

Highlights unavailable.