NCAAB

Grand Canyon vs Coastal Carolina

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-13 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-13 11:33 AM EST

🏀 Matchup: Grand Canyon vs Coastal Carolina on 2025-12-13

💰 Best Bet #1 [Grand Canyon / Spread / -14.5 at -110 / 65% / Grand Canyon dominates at home with superior efficiency ratings and recent blowout wins, covering in 7 of last 10 non-conference games against weaker opponents like Coastal Carolina.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 140.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams play at high tempos with Grand Canyon’s offense averaging 78 PPG and Coastal allowing 75+ in road games; recent trends show overs in 60% of similar matchups.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Grand Canyon / Moneyline / -900 / 85% / Overwhelming home advantage and talent edge, with simulation projecting 85% win probability against a struggling Coastal squad.]

Game Times

ET: 08:00 PM
CT: 07:00 PM
MT: 06:00 PM
PT: 05:00 PM
AKT: 04:00 PM
HST: 02:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[Grand Canyon 75% / Coastal Carolina 25%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Grand Canyon 60% / Coastal Carolina 40%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -13 for Grand Canyon but moved to -14.5 amid steady sharp action on the favorite, despite heavy public backing.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Grand Canyon spread / Implied probability undervalues Grand Canyon’s home dominance and Coastal’s poor road ATS record (2-8 in 2025 season), creating value despite alignment.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Grand Canyon | 85.0% |
| Win % for Coastal Carolina | 15.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Grand Canyon | 55.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52.0% / Under: 48.0% |
| Average Total Points | 140.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [10.0, 30.0] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Tyon Grant-Foster / Over Points / 18.5 at -115 / 70% / Grant-Foster averages 20.2 PPG in home games this season with high usage (28%) against weaker defenses; Coastal allows 22+ to opposing guards.
Player Prop #2: Jase Richardson / Over Points / 12.5 at -110 / 65% / Richardson’s 14.1 PPG on efficient shooting (48% FG) exploits Coastal’s perimeter defense, which ranks bottom-100 in opponent eFG%; over in 6 of 8 recent starts.
Player Prop #3: Kylan Boylan / Under Points / 10.5 at -105 / 60% / Boylan limited to 8.7 PPG on road with low volume (12 shots per game); Grand Canyon’s top-50 defense in turnover-forcing suppresses scoring from Coastal’s wings.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Grand Canyon, aligning with sharp money and line movement, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading. Contextual factors like no major injuries and Grand Canyon’s home-court edge (9-1 record) support the favorite without overvaluation. Overall game scoring projects moderately high, with both offenses capable but defenses tightening late in non-conference play.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Grand Canyon] — Mathematical projections confirm the highest probability on the home favorite across spread, total, and moneyline.

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