UNLV vs Tennessee State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-13 09:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-13 11:34 AM EST

UNLV vs Tennessee State on 2025-12-13

Game Times

ET: 9:30 PM
CT: 8:30 PM
MT: 7:30 PM
PT: 6:30 PM
AKT: 5:30 PM
HST: 3:30 PM

💰 Best Bet #1 UNLV / Spread / -12.5 at -110 / 60% / UNLV’s superior efficiency ratings and home advantage align with the simulation’s 55% cover rate, bolstered by Tennessee State’s poor road defensive rebounding in recent outings.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 140.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams’ adjusted tempos suggest a pace favoring points, with UNLV’s offensive efficiency (112.5 points per 100 possessions) and Tennessee State’s turnover issues pushing the total slightly over the line per simulation data.

💰 Best Bet #3 UNLV / Moneyline / -900 / 75% / Dominant win probability from metrics like SP+ ratings (UNLV at 25.0 vs Tennessee State’s 15.2) and recent form make the favorite a strong play despite juice.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for UNLV | 75% |
| Win % for Tennessee State | 25% |
| Spread Cover % for UNLV | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points | 142 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-5, 22] |

💸 Public Bets
UNLV 72% / Tennessee State 28%

💰 Money Distribution
UNLV 78% / Tennessee State 22%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened at UNLV -11.5, moved to -12.5 with balanced action but slight sharp lean on the favorite based on recent web data from sources like Dunkel Index.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on UNLV spread; simulation and efficiency metrics (UNLV’s 52% eFG% vs Tennessee State’s 45% defensive eFG%) confirm value against implied odds, especially with questionable injuries to Tennessee State contributors.

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors UNLV, aligning with sharp money and market consensus, making a follow on the favorite optimal rather than a fade. Tennessee State’s recent road struggles (1-4 ATS last 5 away) and potential absences like key guards amplify UNLV’s edge without contrarian signals. Overall game scoring outlook points to a moderate-paced affair with UNLV pushing the total higher through efficient shooting, though defensive rebounding could cap explosive runs.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with UNLV — simulation and alignment indicate the highest probability of success.

Highlights unavailable.