Nevada vs Duquesne

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-13 10:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-13 11:36 AM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [Nevada / Spread / -7.5 at -110 / 58% / Nevada’s home efficiency and recent form give them an edge despite injuries, with simulation covering 58% of the time against a struggling Duquesne road team.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 134.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams show defensive rebounding strengths and lower tempo in recent outings, projecting below the line per adjusted efficiencies and injury impacts on scoring.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Nevada / Moneyline / -325 / 68% / Home-court advantage and superior adjusted defensive rating support Nevada’s win probability, aligning with market consensus.]

🏀 Matchup: Nevada vs Duquesne on 2025-12-13

Game Times

ET: 10:00 PM
CT: 9:00 PM
MT: 8:00 PM
PT: 7:00 PM
AKT: 6:00 PM
HST: 4:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[Nevada 72% / Duquesne 28%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Nevada 65% / Duquesne 35%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Nevada -6.5 and moved to -7.5 with balanced action, indicating stability despite public lean toward the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Nevada spread; simulation probabilities exceed implied odds, supported by home splits and defensive metrics, though tempered by Nevada’s injuries.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Nevada | 68% |
| Win % for Duquesne | 32% |
| Spread Cover % for Nevada | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 45% / Under: 55% |
| Average Total Points | 132.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [ -2.1, 18.7 ] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Nevada, aligning with money distribution and sharp action indicators, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading. Nevada’s home defensive efficiency and Duquesne’s road struggles support the favorite, though injuries to Nevada’s key players add slight risk. Overall game scoring outlook leans lower, with both teams’ rebounding and turnover metrics projecting a controlled pace below the total line.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Nevada / No clear edge] — mathematical probability favors Nevada based on simulation and market consensus.

Highlights unavailable.