Chicago Bulls vs New Orleans Pelicans

League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-14 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-14 05:57 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Chicago Bulls / Spread / -5.5 at -110 / 55% / Bulls hold home advantage with stronger recent form and key players probable, covering in 55% of simulations against Pelicans’ road struggles]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 218.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams show defensive efficiencies in current season matchups, with injuries limiting scoring pace and recent games trending below average totals]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Chicago Bulls / Moneyline / -220 / 62% / Simulations project 62% win probability for home team, supported by Pelicans’ injuries and Bulls’ rebounding edge]

Chicago Bulls vs New Orleans Pelicans on 2025-12-14

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[Chicago Bulls 65% / New Orleans Pelicans 35%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Chicago Bulls 55% / New Orleans Pelicans 45%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at -4.5 for Bulls and moved to -5.5 amid moderate public action on the favorite, with some sharp money on the spread per recent trends.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3% on Bulls spread / Positive EV from reverse line movement against public heavy on home side, combined with injury impacts favoring Chicago’s depth]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Chicago Bulls | 62% |
| Win % for New Orleans Pelicans | 38% |
| Spread Cover % for Chicago Bulls | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points/Runs/Goals | 218 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8.5, 19.2] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Josh Giddey / Over Assists / 7.5 at -110 / 65% / Giddey averages 8.2 assists in recent home games with increased usage due to Dosunmu’s questionable status, facing Pelicans’ weak perimeter defense

Player Prop #2: Nikola Vucevic / Over Rebounds / 10.5 at -115 / 60% / Vucevic grabs 11.4 rebounds per game against similar frontcourts, boosted by Pelicans’ injuries to key bigs like Williamson questionable

Player Prop #3: Coby White / Over Points / 20.5 at -105 / 58% / White scores 22.1 points in last five outings when probable, exploiting Pelicans’ backcourt vulnerabilities without Murray

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans heavily toward the Bulls, but divergent money distribution suggests sharp action on the Pelicans’ side, creating value in fading the public on the spread. Mathematical edges favor Chicago due to home-court and injury advantages, with no strong contrarian fade warranted beyond the line movement. Overall game scoring outlook points to a lower total, as both offenses face defensive matchups hampered by absences, aligning with under trends in similar spots.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Chicago Bulls / Strong alignment with simulations and home metrics despite public-heavy action]

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