Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals

League: NFL | Date: 2025-12-21 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-21 09:04 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Bengals / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 58% / Bengals hold a clear edge with Burrow healthy and Dolphins starting rookie QB Ewers, supported by recent form where Cincinnati covers against sub-.500 teams; simulation shows 55% cover rate.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 48.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams average over 24 points offensively in recent games, with Bengals’ defense allowing 28+ lately and Miami’s pace favoring shootouts despite injuries; metrics indicate high-scoring affair.

💰 Best Bet #3 Bengals / Moneyline / -200 / 60% / Cincinnati’s superior win probability from simulation (60%) aligns with their motivation in a must-win scenario, fading Miami’s instability at QB.

Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals on 2025-12-21

Game Times

ET: 1:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 9:00 AM
HST: 7:00 AM

💸 Public Bets

Bengals 68% / Dolphins 32%

💰 Money Distribution

Bengals 72% / Dolphins 28%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Bengals -3.5 but moved to -4.5 amid sharp action on Cincinnati despite public leaning their way, indicating professional confidence in the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+4% on Bengals spread — EV derived from simulation win probabilities, recent ATS trends (Bengals 6-4 last 10), and injury impacts favoring Cincinnati’s offense over Miami’s depleted secondary.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Miami Dolphins | 40% |
| Win % for Cincinnati Bengals | 60% |
| Spread Cover % for Miami Dolphins | 45% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points | 48.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10, 7] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Bengals, aligning with sharp money and line movement toward Cincinnati, making a follow-the-public approach optimal given the EV edge from simulations and Bengals’ defensive metrics against mobile QBs like Ewers. Miami’s offense struggles without Tua (averaging 18 points in recent losses), while Cincinnati’s ranks top-10 in EPA per play. Overall game scoring outlook points to a moderate total, with overs hitting in 6 of Bengals’ last 8 road games due to explosive plays from Burrow and Chase.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Bengals — simulation and market consensus project a 60% win probability, bolstered by Miami’s 6-8 record and key absences.

Highlights unavailable.