Denver Broncos vs Jacksonville Jaguars

League: NFL | Date: 2025-12-21 04:05 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-21 09:05 AM EST

🏈 Denver Broncos vs Jacksonville Jaguars on 2025-12-21

💰 Best Bet #1 Denver Broncos / Spread / -3.5 at -110 / 55% / Broncos hold a defensive edge with recent form showing strong EPA per play against mobile QBs like Lawrence, supported by home-field advantage and injury impacts on Jaguars’ secondary.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 44.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams rank in the bottom half for offensive efficiency this season, with Broncos allowing low yards per play at home and weather factors potentially slowing pace.
💰 Best Bet #3 Denver Broncos / Moneyline / -185 / 60% / Simulation and metrics favor Broncos’ win probability, backed by superior red-zone efficiency and Jaguars’ road struggles against winning teams.

Game Times

ET: 4:05 PM
CT: 3:05 PM
MT: 2:05 PM
PT: 1:05 PM
AKT: 12:05 PM
HST: 10:05 AM

💸 Public Bets
Denver Broncos 65% / Jacksonville Jaguars 35%

💰 Money Distribution
Denver Broncos 60% / Jacksonville Jaguars 40%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Broncos -3 and has held steady at -3.5 despite moderate public action on the favorite, indicating sharp stability on the home side.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.5% on Broncos spread due to reverse line movement hints and contextual edges from Broncos’ home EPA advantage outweighing public lean.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Denver Broncos | 58% |
| Win % for Jacksonville Jaguars | 40% |
| Spread Cover % for Denver Broncos | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 40.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10, 15] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Courtland Sutton / Over Receiving Yards / 60.5 at -115 / 70% / Sutton’s target share exceeds 25% in Nix-led games, facing Jaguars’ secondary vulnerable to deep passes (allowing 7.2 yards per target recently), with Broncos’ pace supporting volume.
Player Prop #2: Travis Etienne / Under Rushing Yards / 55.5 at -110 / 65% / Etienne faces Broncos’ top-10 rush defense (3.8 yards per carry allowed), compounded by Jaguars’ negative turnover margin and short-yardage inefficiency this season.
Player Prop #3: Bo Nix / Over Passing Yards / 220.5 at -105 / 68% / Nix averages 245 yards at home with clean pockets, exploiting Jaguars’ 4.5% sack rate but weak pass rush (bottom-15 EPA against), aided by Sutton’s availability.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward the Broncos, aligning with sharp money indicators and line stability, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading, as EV supports the home favorite without significant overvaluation. Jaguars’ injuries to key defenders like Montaric Brown weaken their coverage, tilting metrics toward Denver’s efficiency. Overall game scoring projects low due to both teams’ defensive strengths and altitude effects at Empower Field, favoring the under.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Denver Broncos — simulation win probability and defensive matchup provide the strongest mathematical edge.

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