Dayton vs Florida State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-16 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-16 11:00 AM EST

Dayton vs Florida State on 2025-12-16

💰 Best Bet #1 [Dayton / Spread / -6.5 at -110 / 65% / Dayton’s strong home efficiency and recent form give them a clear edge, with simulation showing 60% cover rate against a struggling Florida State squad.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 150 at -110 / 60% / Both teams play at a moderate tempo with defensive vulnerabilities, pushing the average simulated total to 150 and favoring a slight lean over based on offensive rebounding trends.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Dayton / Moneyline / -280 / 70% / Home advantage and superior adjusted efficiency metrics align with 75% win probability in simulations, offering value despite the juice.]

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[70% / 30%]

💰 Money Distribution
[60% / 40%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -6 and has held steady at -6.5, with minimal movement despite public leaning toward Dayton.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Dayton spread / Consensus from efficiency metrics and simulation exceeds implied odds probability, creating value despite public support.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Dayton | 75.00% |
| Win % for Florida State | 25.00% |
| Spread Cover % for Dayton | 60.00% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 55.00% / Under: 45.00% |
| Average Total Points | 150.00 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [5.00, 20.00] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward Dayton with aligned money distribution, supporting a follow rather than a fade, as efficiency ratings and home splits reinforce the favorite without sharp resistance. The game outlook points to moderate scoring, with Dayton’s offensive rebounding potentially inflating the total slightly above average. Overall, metrics converge on Dayton covering at home against a Florida State team showing road weaknesses.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Dayton / No clear edge] — mathematical probability favors the home team based on simulation and market consensus.

Highlights unavailable.