Cal Poly vs Montana State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-16 10:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-16 11:11 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Montana State / Spread / -3.5 at -110 / 55% / Montana State shows stronger recent form and efficiency metrics, covering in simulations against similar opponents, with line movement supporting the favorite despite public lean.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 148.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams exhibit moderate offensive paces and defensive vulnerabilities in current season matchups, pushing totals over in 52% of sims with average points at 148.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Montana State / Moneyline / -175 / 63% / Simulations project 63% win probability for Montana State, backed by superior adjusted efficiency and home advantage in Bozeman.]

Cal Poly vs Montana State on 2025-12-16

Game Times

ET: 10:00 PM
CT: 9:00 PM
MT: 8:00 PM
PT: 7:00 PM
AKT: 6:00 PM
HST: 4:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[65% Cal Poly / 35% Montana State]

💰 Money Distribution
[40% Cal Poly / 60% Montana State]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Montana State -1.5 and moved to -3.5, indicating sharp action on the favorite amid moderate public interest.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Montana State spread; simulations and efficiency ratings converge on value against implied odds, with no major injuries altering projections.]

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Cal Poly | 35.0% |
| Win % for Montana State | 63.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Cal Poly +3.5 | 45.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52.0% / Under: 48.0% |
| Average Total Points | 148.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10.0, 20.0] |

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans slightly toward the underdog Cal Poly, but money distribution and line movement align with Montana State, suggesting sharp consensus on the favorite. Following the market here optimizes EV, as simulations confirm Montana State’s edge without contrarian signals. Overall scoring outlook points to a moderate total, with both offenses capable but defenses holding firm in recent outings.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Montana State / No clear edge] — mathematical probability favors the Bobcats at home.

Highlights unavailable.