Loyola Marymount vs UC San Diego

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-16 11:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-16 11:12 AM EST

Loyola Marymount vs UC San Diego on 2025-12-16

Game Times

ET: 11:30 PM
CT: 10:30 PM
MT: 9:30 PM
PT: 8:30 PM
AKT: 7:30 PM
HST: 5:30 PM

💰 Best Bet #1 [Loyola Marymount / Spread / +3 at -110 / 55% / Home team shows resilience in simulations with a 55% cover rate, bolstered by defensive efficiency and UC San Diego’s road shooting struggles at 42% from the field in recent away games.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 139.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams rank in the bottom half for pace and offensive rebounding, with Loyola Marymount allowing 68 points per game at home and UC San Diego averaging 65 on the road, pointing to a controlled, lower-scoring affair.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [UC San Diego / Moneyline / -150 / 52% / Tritons hold a slight edge in win probability due to stronger adjusted efficiency ratings and better recent form against mid-major opponents.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Loyola Marymount | 45% |
| Win % for UC San Diego | 52% |
| Spread Cover % for Loyola Marymount (+3) | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 139.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12, 10] |

💸 Public Bets
[45% / 55%]

💰 Money Distribution
[40% / 60%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at UC San Diego -3.5 and moved to -3 with balanced action, showing stability despite moderate public lean toward the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+2.5% on Loyola Marymount +3, driven by simulation cover probability exceeding implied odds and home-court factors offsetting UC San Diego’s slight talent edge.]

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans toward UC San Diego with aligned money distribution, but simulations indicate value in fading slightly on the spread given Loyola Marymount’s home defensive metrics allowing under 70 points recently. Sharp action appears neutral, supporting a follow on the underdog cover without strong contrarian signals. Overall game scoring outlook favors the under, as both offenses struggle against similar-paced defenses, with UC San Diego’s road efficiency dropping 8% from home norms.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Fade the public on UC San Diego / Follow the public with Loyola Marymount] — mathematical probability favors the home underdog cover based on simulation edges and matchup data.

Highlights unavailable.