Wake Forest vs Longwood

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-17 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-17 10:47 AM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [Wake Forest / Spread / -26.5 at -110 / 68% / Wake Forest’s superior adjusted efficiency (KenPom rating 45 vs. Longwood’s 220) and home-court dominance support covering the large spread, backed by simulation cover rate and recent form where they cover 70% as heavy favorites.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 158.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams rank in the bottom half for tempo and offensive efficiency this season, with Wake Forest allowing just 68 PPG at home and Longwood struggling on the road (avg. 62 PPG scored), projecting a controlled, low-possession game below the line.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Wake Forest / Moneyline / -2500 / 92% / Overwhelming edge in talent and depth, with no key injuries impacting starters; simulation shows 92.3% win probability against a mid-major underdog.]

Wake Forest vs Longwood on 2025-12-17

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[Wake Forest 82% / Longwood 18%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Wake Forest 68% / Longwood 32%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Wake Forest -24.5 but moved to -26.5 amid moderate volume, signaling sharp support for the favorite despite heavy public action on Wake Forest.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Wake Forest spread — Implied probability of 52.4% vs. estimated true cover rate of 66.5% from metrics and simulation, creating value against the line.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Wake Forest | 92.3% |
| Win % for Longwood | 7.7% |
| Spread Cover % for Wake Forest | 66.5% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.2% / Under: 51.8% |
| Average Total Points | 152.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [11.2, 39.8] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Wake Forest, aligning with sharp money and line movement toward the favorite, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading. No significant injuries reported for either side as of 2025-12-17, preserving Wake Forest’s depth advantage. Overall game scoring outlook leans low, with defensive efficiencies and slow tempos projecting under the total based on current season averages (Wake Forest 142.5 combined points in home games, Longwood 130.2 on road).

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Wake Forest — Mathematical probability strongly supports the favorite across win, cover, and EV metrics.]

Highlights unavailable.