St. Bonaventure vs Le Moyne

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-20 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-20 10:25 AM EST

St. Bonaventure vs Le Moyne on 2025-12-20

💰 Best Bet #1 [St. Bonaventure / Spread / -18.5 at -110 / 60% / St. Bonaventure’s dominant 10-2 record and home advantage at the Reilly Center overpower Le Moyne’s 5-6 form, with recent wins showing strong defensive efficiency against mid-majors.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 148.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams play at a moderate tempo, with St. Bonaventure averaging 78 points per game offensively and Le Moyne allowing 75, suggesting a slight lean over based on adjusted efficiencies and recent trends.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [St. Bonaventure / Moneyline / -2000 / 92% / The Bonnies’ superior talent and 92% simulated win probability make them a lock against the Dolphins, who struggle on the road.]

Game Times
ET: 1:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 9:00 AM
HST: 8:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
[85% St. Bonaventure / 15% Le Moyne]

💰 Money Distribution
[75% St. Bonaventure / 25% Le Moyne]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
[Opened at -17.5, moved to -18.5 with balanced action; no significant RLM despite public lean on favorite.]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+4% on St. Bonaventure spread; simulation and form metrics show value against implied probability, with home efficiency edge outweighing public percentage.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for St. Bonaventure | 92% |
| Win % for Le Moyne | 8% |
| Spread Cover % for St. Bonaventure | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points | 152 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [2, 35] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Frank Mitchell / Over Points / 18.5 at -115 / 75% / Mitchell’s 20+ PPG average in home games and Le Moyne’s weak interior defense (allowing 45% FG inside) support exceeding this line, with high usage rate.
Player Prop #2: Daryl Banks III / Over Points / 14.5 at -110 / 70% / Banks has hit 15+ in 4 of last 5, facing Le Moyne’s perimeter defense that yields 35% from three; offensive rebounding aids second-chance scoring.
Player Prop #3: Le Moyne’s Olij Simpson / Under Points / 12.5 at -105 / 65% / Simpson averages 11 PPG but faces St. Bonaventure’s top-100 defensive efficiency, limiting guards to under 40% shooting in recent matchups.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors St. Bonaventure, aligning with sharp money and simulation outcomes, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading. Le Moyne’s road struggles and scoring inconsistencies reduce upset potential. The game projects as moderately high-scoring, with St. Bonaventure’s offense pushing the total over neutral based on pace and defensive rebounding rates.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with St. Bonaventure] — mathematical probability strongly supports the favorite’s cover and win.

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