Marist vs Stony Brook

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-21 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-21 09:48 AM EST

Marist vs Stony Brook on 2025-12-21

💰 Best Bet #1 Marist / Spread / -2.5 at -110 / 55% / Home-court edge and recent form give Marist a slight projection advantage over the line, supported by defensive efficiencies.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 140.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams exhibit low offensive ratings and strong rebounding defenses, trending toward a lower-scoring affair based on pace and efficiency metrics.

💰 Best Bet #3 Marist / Moneyline / -140 / 58% / Simulation and adjusted efficiencies favor Marist in a close home matchup, with positive EV against the implied probability.

Game Times

ET: 1:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 9:00 AM
HST: 7:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
Marist 60% / Stony Brook 40%

💰 Money Distribution
Marist 55% / Stony Brook 45%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -3 and has held steady at -2.5, with minimal movement despite moderate public action on the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Marist spread; convergence of sim probabilities and market odds creates value, especially with home advantage outweighing neutral injury impacts.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Marist | 58% |
| Win % for Stony Brook | 42% |
| Spread Cover % for Marist (-2.5) | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 138.7 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-6.2, +4.8] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward Marist, aligning with sharp money indicators and simulation outcomes, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading. Both defenses rank highly in adjusted efficiency, suggesting a controlled pace and under-leaning total. Injuries appear minimal across rosters, preserving key contributors on both sides.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Marist — simulation and market data confirm the highest probability for a home win.

Highlights unavailable.