Iowa State vs Long Beach State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-21 06:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-21 10:10 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Iowa State / Spread / -18.5 at -110 / 65% / Iowa State dominates with superior efficiency and home advantage, covering in 62% of simulations against weaker opponents like Long Beach State.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 145.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams show defensive strengths in recent form, with Iowa State’s pace control and Long Beach State’s low scoring output favoring a lower total.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Iowa State / Moneyline / -2000 / 95% / Overwhelming win probability from adjusted efficiency ratings and historical dominance in similar matchups.]

Iowa State vs Long Beach State on 2025-12-21

Game Times
ET: 6:00 PM
CT: 5:00 PM
MT: 4:00 PM
PT: 3:00 PM
AKT: 2:00 PM
HST: 12:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[Iowa State 85% / Long Beach State 15%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Iowa State 80% / Long Beach State 20%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
[Line opened at -19.5 and ticked down to -18.5 amid heavy public action on the favorite, indicating stable sharp consensus.]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% EV on Iowa State spread; simulation cover rate exceeds implied probability, supported by current season efficiency metrics and no major injuries impacting key players.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Iowa State | 92% |
| Win % for Long Beach State | 8% |
| Spread Cover % for Iowa State | 62% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 145.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [+12, +28] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Iowa State, aligning with sharp money and simulation outcomes, making following the public the optimal approach in this mismatch. Iowa State’s adjusted offensive efficiency ranks top-20, while Long Beach State’s defensive rebounding struggles, but overall game scoring projects slightly under due to controlled tempo and limited possessions. No significant reverse line movement or contrarian signals present, confirming value on the favorite side.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Iowa State / No clear edge]

Highlights unavailable.