Minnesota Timberwolves vs New York Knicks

League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-23 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-23 06:17 PM EST

Minnesota Timberwolves vs New York Knicks on 2025-12-23

💰 Best Bet #1 [Minnesota Timberwolves / Spread / -7.5 at -110 / 60% / Timberwolves benefit from Knicks’ key injuries like Brunson and Anunoby out, boosting home cover probability; simulation shows 55% cover rate with strong defensive edge against depleted Knicks offense.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 228.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams’ paces align for moderate scoring, with Timberwolves’ 117.6 ORTG vs Knicks’ road defensive rating of 112.8; recent trends and sim indicate slight over lean at 52% probability.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Minnesota Timberwolves / Moneyline / -295 / 70% / Dominant home form and Knicks’ injury woes create clear value; sim projects 72% win chance, aligning with sharp money on favorite.]

Game Times

ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

Public Bets

[Minnesota Timberwolves 60% / New York Knicks 40%]

Money Distribution

[Minnesota Timberwolves 75% / New York Knicks 25%]

Market Alignment

[Aligned]

Line Movement

Line opened at -6.5 for Timberwolves but steamed to -7.5 on news of Knicks’ multiple absences, including Brunson and Anunoby, despite some public interest in underdog.

Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3% on Timberwolves spread; injuries create value against implied odds, with sim and sharp money converging on home side for positive EV.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Minnesota Timberwolves | 72.0% |
| Win % for New York Knicks | 28.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Minnesota Timberwolves | 55.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points | 229.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-9.2, 21.4] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Anthony Edwards / Over Points / 28.5 at -110 / 65% / Edwards’ 28.5% usage rate spikes against Knicks’ weakened defense without Brunson; averages 29.2 PPG in last 5 home games, with matchup favoring ISO scoring.

Player Prop #2: Naz Reid / Over Points / 14.5 at -110 / 70% / McDaniels out increases Reid’s minutes to 27+; hit over in 4/5 games without him, leveraging Timberwolves’ pace vs Knicks’ frontcourt vulnerabilities.

Player Prop #3: Mitchell Robinson / Over Rebounds + Assists / 9.5 at -122 / 60% / Knicks’ injuries boost Robinson’s role, averaging 10.8 RA in games without Anunoby; defensive rebounding rate of 28% thrives against Timberwolves’ mid-range heavy attack.

Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans slightly toward the Knicks as underdogs, but sharp money and line movement favor the Timberwolves, creating alignment for following the home side rather than fading. Knicks’ offensive rating drops 8 points without Brunson and Anunoby, while Timberwolves’ defense holds opponents under 105 in similar spots. Overall game outlook points to moderate scoring, with over slightly edged due to combined paces but tempered by Knicks’ grind-it-out style on the road.

Recommended Play

Follow the public with Minnesota Timberwolves — mathematical probability favors home win at 72% from sim, supported by injury-adjusted metrics and market consensus.

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