Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Giants

League: NFL | Date: 2025-12-28 04:05 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-28 09:37 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [New York Giants / Spread / -2.5 at -110 / 55% / Giants hold a slight edge in recent form and simulation win probability, with line movement supporting their favoritism despite public heavy action; injuries weaken Raiders’ line, favoring Giants cover.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 40.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams rank low in offensive efficiency this season, with key injuries to pass-catchers and QBs limiting scoring potential; average sim total of 39 points aligns with under.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [New York Giants / Moneyline / -130 / 55% / Giants’ 55% simulated win rate and better turnover margin provide value against a depleted Raiders squad, even as public favorites.]

Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Giants on 2025-12-28

Game Times
ET: 4:05 PM
CT: 3:05 PM
MT: 2:05 PM
PT: 1:05 PM
AKT: 12:05 PM
HST: 10:05 AM

💸 Public Bets
[Giants 62% / Raiders 38%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Giants 58% / Raiders 42%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Giants -1.5 and moved to -2.5 with balanced action, no significant RLM indicating sharp resistance to public favoritism toward Giants.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Giants spread] — Implied probability of -110 odds is 52.4%, but simulation and recent metrics converge at 55% cover rate, creating value despite alignment.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Las Vegas Raiders | 45% |
| Win % for New York Giants | 55% |
| Spread Cover % for Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 39 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-6, +4] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Tyrone Tracy / Over Rushing Yards / 62.5 at -115 / 65% / Tracy has averaged 68 yards per game in recent outings with increased usage due to injuries ahead; Giants’ run game exploits Raiders’ weakened O-line without Crosby, supporting over based on 4.8 YPC efficiency.

Player Prop #2: Jakobi Meyers / Under Receiving Yards / 48.5 at -110 / 58% / Meyers faces Giants’ stout secondary led by Burns, with Raiders QB under pressure sans Miller; his season average dips to 42 yards vs top-10 pass defenses, favoring under amid low-volume passing.

Player Prop #3: Daniel Carlson / Over Made Field Goals / 1.5 at -120 / 60% / Raiders’ red-zone inefficiency (45% TD rate) boosts FG attempts; Carlson 85% accurate inside 50 yards this season, and sim projects 2+ FGs in low-scoring affair.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Giants, aligning with money distribution and line movement toward their side, indicating no strong contrarian edge despite NFL Week 17 tanking narratives; sharp action appears supportive of New York given balanced money flow. Both offenses struggle with injuries to key protectors and weapons, pointing to a low-scoring grind under 40.5 total. Follow the public here as metrics and simulation confirm Giants’ slight superiority without forcing a fade.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Giants] — Mathematical probability favors their moneyline and spread based on 55% win simulation and positive EV alignment.

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