Cincinnati Bengals vs Arizona Cardinals

League: NFL | Date: 2025-12-28 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-28 09:31 AM EST

Cincinnati Bengals vs Arizona Cardinals on 2025-12-28

💰 Best Bet #1 Bengals / Spread / -7 at -110 / 58% / Bengals’ offense led by Burrow exploits Arizona’s banged-up secondary and recent defensive collapses, with simulation showing strong cover probability amid home advantage and Cardinals’ seven-game skid.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 53.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ recent games trend toward middling totals, with Arizona’s poor red-zone efficiency and Cincinnati’s balanced attack facing rainy conditions limiting explosive plays, aligning with simulation’s slight under lean.

💰 Best Bet #3 Bengals / Moneyline / -300 / 65% / Cincinnati’s superior QB play and motivation to build momentum outweigh Arizona’s struggles, supported by 65% win simulation and public/sharp consensus.

Game Times

ET: 1:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 9:00 AM
HST: 7:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
71% Bengals / 29% Cardinals

💰 Money Distribution
80% Bengals / 20% Cardinals

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -6.5 and moved to -7 toward the favorite despite heavy public action on Cincinnati, indicating some sharp support for the Bengals.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on Bengals spread; reverse line movement against public percentage suggests professional backing, combined with Bengals’ EPA edge and Cardinals’ injury-hit defense for positive EV.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Cincinnati Bengals | 65% |
| Win % for Arizona Cardinals | 35% |
| Spread Cover % for Cincinnati Bengals | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 47.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10.2, 20.8] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Joe Burrow / Over Passing Yards / 275.5 / -115 / 70% / Burrow’s recent efficiency (CPOE above 10%) against Arizona’s vulnerable secondary, allowing 280+ passer yards in four of last five, supports over with full health and no major Bengals OL injuries.

Player Prop #2: Ja’Marr Chase / Over Receiving Yards / 85.5 / -110 / 65% / Chase’s high target share (30%+) and yards per route run (2.5+) exploit Cardinals’ banged-up DBs, hitting over in 70% of home games this season versus similar pass defenses.

Player Prop #3: Trey McBride / Over Receiving Yards / 55.5 / -112 / 62% / McBride’s role expands with Brissett at QB, averaging 60+ yards in recent outings against soft LBs like Bengals’, with Arizona’s possession-based offense favoring his 75% catch rate on targets.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Bengals, aligning with money distribution and line movement, indicating no clear fade opportunity as sharp action reinforces the favorite amid Arizona’s defensive injuries and skid. Follow the consensus here, as metrics like Bengals’ top-10 EPA offense versus Cardinals’ bottom-5 defense confirm value. Overall scoring outlook points to a moderate total, with weather and turnovers likely capping points below the line based on recent trends and simulation averages.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Bengals — mathematical probability favors their win and cover given superior form and matchup edges.

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