Georgia vs Ole Miss

League: NCAAF | Date: 2026-01-01 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-01 10:28 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Georgia / Spread / -6.5 at -110 / 58% / Georgia’s superior SP+ rating and defensive havoc rate give them an edge to cover on a neutral site, supported by recent dominant wins against Tennessee and others.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 55.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams rank top-20 in defensive efficiency this season, with Georgia allowing just 18.8 PPG and Ole Miss holding opponents under 25 PPG in recent games, pointing to a controlled, low-scoring affair.

💰 Best Bet #3 Georgia / Moneyline / -250 / 62% / Simulations and FPI metrics favor Georgia’s overall talent depth and quarterback play, making them the clear choice despite public heavy action.

Georgia vs Ole Miss on 2026-01-01

Game Times
ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Georgia 72% / Ole Miss 28%

💰 Money Distribution
Georgia 65% / Ole Miss 35%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -5.5 and moved to -6.5 with balanced action, showing stability despite public lean toward Georgia; no significant RLM detected.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Georgia spread due to convergence of sharp money indicators and defensive metrics outweighing public percentage, with no major injury disruptions.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Georgia | 62.5% |
| Win % for Ole Miss | 36.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Georgia | 55.2% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.3% / Under: 51.7% |
| Average Total Points | 63.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10.2, 25.4] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Gunner Stockton / Over Passing Yards / 275.5 at -110 / 65% / Stockton’s efficiency against similar secondaries (68% completion rate in recent starts) and Ole Miss’s vulnerability to explosive passes (allowing 250+ yards in 4 of last 6) support the over.

Player Prop #2: Lawson Luckie / Over 1.5 TDs / -120 / 70% / Luckie’s red-zone usage (scored in 80% of opportunities this season) and Georgia’s run-heavy tempo against Ole Miss’s average rush defense make multiple scores likely.

Player Prop #3: Trinidad Chambliss / Over Rushing Yards / 95.5 at -105 / 60% / Chambliss averages 110 yards per game post-injury recovery, exploiting Georgia’s occasional gaps in run defense (allowed 120+ in two recent matchups).

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Georgia, aligning with sharp money and mathematical edges from FPI and success rates, making following the favorite optimal rather than fading. Ole Miss’s explosive offense could keep it close, but Georgia’s havoc rate limits big plays. Overall scoring outlook leans under, with both defenses excelling in third-down stops and turnover margin.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Georgia — simulations and market consensus confirm the highest probability of success.

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