Winnipeg Jets vs Edmonton Oilers

League: NHL | Date: 2025-12-29 07:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-29 11:02 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Winnipeg Jets / Puck Line / +1.5 at -170 / 68% / Simulation shows strong cover probability for the home underdog, supported by Edmonton’s road struggles and Winnipeg’s defensive metrics in recent matchups.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 6.5 at -110 / 55% / Flipped from simulation’s slight over lean, historical NHL trends favor unders in divisional games with these goalie matchups and fatigue factors.
💰 Best Bet #3 Edmonton Oilers / Moneyline / -128 / 52% / Edmonton’s superior xGF and power-play efficiency give them the edge despite being on the road.

Winnipeg Jets vs Edmonton Oilers on 2025-12-29

Game Times

ET: 7:30 PM
CT: 6:30 PM
MT: 5:30 PM
PT: 4:30 PM
AKT: 3:30 PM
HST: 1:30 PM

💸 Public Bets

Oilers 65% / Jets 35%

💰 Money Distribution

Oilers 55% / Jets 45%

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Oilers -1.5 +140 but moved to -130 with sharp action on the underdog Jets despite public favoritism toward Edmonton.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Jets puck line, driven by reverse line movement and simulation cover rates outpacing implied odds.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Winnipeg Jets | 38.5% |
| Win % for Edmonton Oilers | 52.3% |
| Spread Cover % for Winnipeg Jets | 68.4% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 51.2% / Under: 48.8% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.9 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-3, 2] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Connor McDavid / Over Points / 1.5 at +120 / 72% / Edmonton’s top usage and high-danger chances against Winnipeg’s PK yield consistent multi-point games, with 75% hit rate in similar road spots.
Player Prop #2: Kyle Connor / Over Shots on Goal / 3.5 at -115 / 68% / Home advantage boosts Connor’s volume, averaging 4.2 SOG lately versus Edmonton’s leaky perimeter defense.
Player Prop #3: Leon Draisaitl / Over Assists / 0.5 at -140 / 75% / Playmaking role in power-play setups projects high assist probability, hitting in 80% of recent outings against Central foes.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Oilers on the moneyline, but divergent money distribution and reverse line movement suggest sharp resistance, making a fade optimal on the spread. Edmonton’s offensive metrics align with a win, yet Winnipeg’s home defense caps scoring potential for a controlled, lower-total affair. Overall, the game projects as moderately paced with underdog value prominent.

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on Oilers — mathematical edge favors Jets puck line based on simulation and market signals.

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