Northern Illinois vs Buffalo

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-31 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-31 08:45 AM EST

Northern Illinois vs Buffalo on 2025-12-31

Game Times

ET: 1:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 9:00 AM
HST: 7:00 AM

💰 Best Bet #1 [Buffalo / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 55% / Buffalo’s superior recent form and efficiency ratings give them an edge, with simulation supporting a cover in over half of scenarios despite home advantage for Northern Illinois]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 140.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams show defensive rebounding strengths and lower tempo in recent matchups, aligning with under probability from pace and efficiency data]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Buffalo / Moneyline / -200 / 61% / Higher win probability driven by Buffalo’s adjusted offensive efficiency and key player availability against a struggling Northern Illinois squad]

💸 Public Bets
[65% / 35%]

💰 Money Distribution
[70% / 30%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Buffalo -3.5 and moved to -4.5 with balanced action but slight sharp lean toward Buffalo based on recent efficiency trends.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+2.5% on Buffalo spread; simulation win probability exceeds implied odds, supported by current season form and no major injuries shifting dynamics]

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Ryan Sabol / Over 18.5 Points / -110 / 65% / Sabol’s recent 31-point outing highlights his high usage rate (28%) against similar defenses, with Buffalo’s pace favoring overs in scoring for lead guards
Player Prop #2: David Coit / Over 14.5 Points / -112 / 58% / Coit’s average of 15.2 points per game in home splits, combined with Buffalo’s average defensive efficiency allowing guard production, supports the over
Player Prop #3: Isaiah Barnes / Under 8.5 Rebounds / -108 / 60% / Barnes faces Buffalo’s strong defensive rebounding (top-150 in adjusted metrics), limiting second-chance opportunities and aligning with his recent under trend

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment aligns with sharp money on Buffalo, making a follow strategy optimal as metrics like adjusted efficiency and recent form confirm value without contrarian signals. No significant reverse line movement or public fade opportunities emerge, with both teams’ defenses suggesting a controlled pace. Overall game scoring outlook points to a lower total, given combined offensive rebounding weaknesses and moderate tempo.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Buffalo] — mathematical probability favors their outright and spread success based on simulation and market consensus.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Buffalo | 60.58% |
| Win % for Northern Illinois | 39.42% |
| Spread Cover % for Buffalo | 52.30% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.50% / Under: 51.50% |
| Average Total Points | 140.00 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-19.50, 22.80] |

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