Chicago Bulls vs New Orleans Pelicans

League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-31 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-31 06:25 PM EST

Chicago Bulls vs New Orleans Pelicans on 2025-12-31

💰 Best Bet #1 New Orleans Pelicans / +1.5 / -110 / 55% / Pelicans edge in simulation cover probability against a shorthanded Bulls squad missing key guards, with recent form showing New Orleans’ resilience on the road despite injuries.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 248.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams hampered by injuries to primary scorers, leading to lower pace and efficiency; Bulls’ home unders trend strong, aligning with average simulated total of 218 points.

💰 Best Bet #3 New Orleans Pelicans / Moneyline / +105 / 52% / Slight simulation favoritism for Pelicans due to Bulls’ absences like Giddey and White, creating value as underdogs in a close matchup.

Game Times

ET: 07:00 PM
CT: 06:00 PM
MT: 05:00 PM
PT: 04:00 PM
AKT: 03:00 PM
HST: 01:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Chicago Bulls 58% / New Orleans Pelicans 42%

💰 Money Distribution
Chicago Bulls 62% / New Orleans Pelicans 38%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened at Bulls -2.5, moved to -1.5 despite heavy public action on Chicago, indicating some sharp resistance on Pelicans side.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Pelicans +1.5, driven by injury impacts reducing Bulls’ offensive output and simulation probabilities favoring a tight game.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Chicago Bulls | 48% |
| Win % for New Orleans Pelicans | 52% |
| Spread Cover % for Chicago Bulls -1.5 | 45% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 218.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-15.0, 13.0] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Zion Williamson / Over 21.5 Points / -115 / 65% / Williamson’s usage spikes without full supporting cast, averaging 24.8 points in recent outings against similar defenses; Pelicans’ pace favors high-volume scoring.

Player Prop #2: Nikola Vucevic / Over 10.5 Rebounds / -110 / 60% / Vucevic dominates boards at home (12.2 avg), especially vs Pelicans’ weaker interior; injuries boost his opportunities without competition from sidelined guards.

Player Prop #3: Ayo Dosunmu / Over 5.5 Assists / +100 / 58% / Dosunmu steps up as primary facilitator with White out, hitting 6.4 assists in last three starts; matchup exposes Pelicans’ perimeter vulnerabilities.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward the Bulls due to home-court advantage and recent hype, but sharp money shows divergence with line softening, suggesting value in fading Chicago amid key injuries to Giddey and White that cripple their backcourt. Mathematical edges favor the Pelicans across spread and moneyline, supported by simulation outcomes. Overall game scoring projects low, with defensive adjustments and absences pointing to an under-friendly contest below the inflated total line.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Chicago Bulls — Pelicans hold the superior probability edge in a matchup skewed by injuries and efficiency metrics.

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