St. Louis Blues vs Montreal Canadiens

League: NHL | Date: 2026-01-03 04:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-03 11:17 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [St. Louis Blues / Puck Line / +1.5 at -220 / 65% / Blues’ home-ice edge and recent defensive form against Montreal’s road struggles provide value on the cover, with simulation showing tight margins.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 5.5 at -110 / 55% / Flipped recommendation despite data leaning under; offensive metrics from both teams’ recent games suggest potential for goals, factoring in power-play opportunities and goalie matchups.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [St. Louis Blues / Moneyline / +111 / 52% / Simulation edges Blues at home with 52% win probability, supported by line movement and injury advantages over Montreal’s depleted roster.]

St. Louis Blues vs Montreal Canadiens on 2026-01-03

Game Times

ET: 4:00 PM
CT: 3:00 PM
MT: 2:00 PM
PT: 1:00 PM
AKT: 12:00 PM
HST: 10:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
[Montreal 58% / St. Louis 42%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Montreal 62% / St. Louis 38%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Montreal -1.5 (+150) and moved to -1.5 (+140), with slight steam toward the favorite despite public lean, indicating some sharp action on Montreal but stability overall.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+2.5% on Blues ML; implied probability undervalues Blues’ home win chance based on xGF metrics and simulation, with positive EV from reverse line hints and injury context.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for St. Louis Blues | 52% |
| Win % for Montreal Canadiens | 48% |
| Spread Cover % for St. Louis Blues | 48% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points/Runs/Goals | 5.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-3, 4] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Nick Suzuki / Over Shots on Goal / 2.5 at -120 / 70% / Suzuki averages 3.1 SOG per game this season against Central Division teams, with Montreal’s top-line usage boosting opportunities versus Blues’ defense allowing 28 shots per game.

Player Prop #2: Jordan Kyrou / Over Points / 0.5 at +150 / 62% / Kyrou’s high-danger scoring rate (1.2 xGF/60) aligns well against Montreal’s penalty kill (78%), and home splits show 0.8 points per game average.

Player Prop #3: Cole Caufield / Over Goals / 0.5 at +220 / 58% / Caufield’s shooting efficiency (18% conversion) exploits Blues’ high-danger save percentage weakness (82%), with recent form yielding goals in 4 of last 6 games.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward the road favorite Montreal, aligning with money distribution, but sharp indicators from line stability suggest value in fading slightly toward the Blues at home. Both teams’ defenses have been leaky lately, with Blues allowing 3.2 goals per game and Montreal 3.0 on the road, pointing to a moderate-scoring affair around 5.4 total goals. Follow the simulation’s edge on Blues without forcing a full public fade, as EV supports their moneyline in this close matchup.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Fade the public on Montreal / Follow with St. Louis Blues] — Blues hold the mathematical probability edge at home.

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