Loyola Chicago vs Dayton

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-03 02:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-03 11:53 AM EST

Loyola Chicago vs Dayton on 2026-01-03

Game Times

ET: 2:00 PM
CT: 1:00 PM
MT: 12:00 PM
PT: 11:00 AM
AKT: 10:00 AM
HST: 8:00 AM

💰 Best Bet #1 [Loyola Chicago / Spread / +8 at -110 / 55% / Simulation indicates 55% cover probability, supported by line movement toward the underdog and Loyola’s home resilience despite recent ATS struggles]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 135.5 at -110 / 52% / Average simulated total of 135.2 points aligns with defensive efficiencies from both teams’ recent games, favoring a lower-scoring affair]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Dayton / Moneyline / -350 / 70% / Dayton holds a clear 70% win probability per simulations, bolstered by superior adjusted efficiency ratings and road performance]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Loyola Chicago | 30% |
| Win % for Dayton | 70% |
| Spread Cover % for Loyola Chicago (+8.5) | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 135.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (Dayton – Loyola) | [-2.1, 18.7] |

💸 Public Bets
[Dayton 70% / Loyola Chicago 30%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Dayton 60% / Loyola Chicago 40%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Dayton -8.5 and moved to -8, showing slight resistance despite public leaning toward the favorite, per recent market updates.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Loyola Chicago +8 / Simulations reveal a 55% cover rate exceeding the -110 implied probability of 52.4%, creating positive EV amid convergent sharp action indicators from line movement.]

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Dayton, aligning with money distribution and market consensus, but the slight reverse line movement suggests sharp interest in Loyola as a home underdog. Following the public on Dayton’s moneyline holds value, while fading on the spread offers the optimal edge based on simulation probabilities. Overall game scoring outlook points to a controlled pace, with both teams’ defensive rebounding and turnover rates supporting an under-leaning total.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Fade the public on Loyola Chicago +8] — mathematical probability favors the cover at 55%, driven by EV-positive simulations and contextual home factors.

Highlights unavailable.