Rice vs Memphis

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-03 03:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-03 12:12 PM EST

Rice vs Memphis on 2026-01-03

💰 Best Bet #1 [Rice / Spread / +8.5 at -110 / 55% / Simulation indicates 54% cover probability, with Rice’s defensive efficiency providing value against Memphis’ offense in a projected close margin within the confidence interval.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 139.5 at -110 / 54% / Average simulated total of 138.7 points aligns with both teams’ adjusted defensive efficiencies (Memphis 92.8, Rice 102.1), suggesting a controlled pace and lower scoring output.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Memphis / Moneyline / -150 / 72% / Dominant win probability from efficiencies and home-court advantage, supported by recent form trends in non-conference play.]

Game Times

ET: 3:00 PM
CT: 2:00 PM
MT: 1:00 PM
PT: 12:00 PM
AKT: 11:00 AM
HST: 9:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
[Memphis 70% / Rice 30%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Memphis 55% / Rice 45%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
[Stable at -8.5 for Memphis; no significant shifts despite moderate public lean toward the favorite, indicating balanced action.]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Rice +8.5; simulation-derived cover rate exceeds implied odds probability, with contextual adjustments for tempo and rebounding edges creating positive value without contrarian overreach.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Rice | 28% |
| Win % for Memphis | 72% |
| Spread Cover % for Rice (+8.5) | 54% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 46% / Under: 54% |
| Average Total Points | 138.7 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.4, -4.2] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster and injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Memphis, aligning with money distribution and market consensus, but the simulation highlights value in fading on the spread without strong reverse line movement to confirm sharp action. Both teams’ defensive metrics suggest a lower-scoring affair, with Memphis’ home advantage bolstering their win probability but not inflating the total beyond the line. Overall, the game outlook points to a gritty, under-the-total contest driven by efficiency edges rather than explosive offense.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Fade the public on Rice] — mathematical simulation supports the cover as the highest EV opportunity.

Highlights unavailable.