Indiana vs Oregon

League: NCAAF | Date: 2026-01-09 07:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-09 10:38 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Indiana / Spread / -3.5 at -110 / 58% / Simulation indicates 57% cover probability, supported by Indiana’s strong defensive metrics and home-field-like advantage in neutral site playoff atmosphere, despite public heavy action on Hoosiers.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 48.5 at -105 / 54% / Both teams show solid defensive efficiency in recent games (Indiana allowing 14 PPG in last three, Oregon 9 PPG), with average simulated total of 51.8 but under probability at 53% due to playoff slowdown and injury impacts on offenses.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Indiana / Moneyline / -185 / 65% / 64% win probability from Monte Carlo aligns with current season form, where Indiana dominated non-conference foes, outweighing Oregon’s road inconsistencies.]

🏈 Matchup: Indiana vs Oregon on 2026-01-09

Game Times

ET: 7:30 PM
CT: 6:30 PM
MT: 5:30 PM
PT: 4:30 PM
AKT: 3:30 PM
HST: 1:30 PM

💸 Public Bets

[Indiana 76% / Oregon 24%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Indiana 80% / Oregon 20%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Opened at Indiana -4, moved to -3.5 despite heavy public and money on Hoosiers, suggesting some sharp action on Oregon.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3% on Indiana spread; implied probability from odds (52.4%) undervalues simulation’s 57% cover rate, confirmed by current season EPA differentials favoring Indiana’s balance.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Indiana | 64% |
| Win % for Oregon | 36% |
| Spread Cover % for Indiana | 57% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 47% / Under: 53% |
| Average Total Points | 51.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12, -1] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Fernando Mendoza / Over Passing Yards / 245.5 at -110 / 68% / Mendoza’s 72% completion rate and 280 YPG average in recent wins exploit Oregon’s secondary, which ranks outside top 50 in pass defense per current season havoc rates.
Player Prop #2: Roman Hemby / Over Rushing Yards / 85.5 at -112 / 65% / Hemby’s 5.8 YPC and 110 YPG form against Oregon’s run D (68th nationally, allowing 4.2 YPC) positions this over strongly, especially with no key injuries in Indiana backfield.
Player Prop #3: Dante Moore / Under Passing Yards / 220.5 at -108 / 62% / Moore faces Indiana’s top-20 pass rush (3.2 sacks per game), with his 58% completion under pressure likely capping output below line based on away splits this season.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Indiana with aligned money, but the slight reverse line movement to -3.5 signals potential sharp resistance on Oregon; however, mathematical edges and simulation metrics support following the public on the Hoosiers due to superior SP+ ratings and turnover margin. Overall game scoring outlook leans under, as both defenses excel in red-zone efficiency (Indiana 78% stop rate, Oregon 82%), tempered by playoff intensity reducing explosive plays.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public on Indiana] — simulation and EV calculations confirm the Hoosiers’ edge in a controlled, lower-scoring affair.

Highlights unavailable.